November 4, 2012 Analysis
R+0.8 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+5 - Gallup
O+1.3 - IBD/Tipp
Even - ABC/WaPo
O+1 - Battleground
Even - Pew
R+1 - NPR
O+1 - CBS/NYT
Even - Fox
O+5 - National Journal
O+0.15% - Current RCP Average
O+0.73% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.05% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.28% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.33% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.06% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
Average Democrat advantage across all polls: D+4.16
The national polls continue to show a tie. They also continue to assume a Democrat turnout advantage of over 4 points. I think we can safely say that if the Democrats are able to turnout 5,200,000 more voters than Republicans, then the race will indeed be close. As I said yesterday, I view such a turnout advantage to be very unlikely. I believe that as we moved closer to the election, too many Obama voters were making it through the likely voter screens by falsely claiming to have already voted. This was especially prevalent in state polls, but it also is affecting national polls.
The only polls that released new numbers were Rasmussen and ABC/WaPo. Rasmussen showed no change, while Independent support for Romney returned to +4. ABC/WaPo dropped into a tie. This was because their sample expanded back to D+4. Oddly, they also found that Independents have no preference, with equal support for Obama and Romney, an 8 point swing in one day. I believe this result to be unlikely, but I included their result in the averages.
Overall, my conclusions from yesterday remain the same. If turnout is D+3 or better for the GOP, then Romney will win the election.
Tomorrow everyone will be releasing final polls. I intend to post analysis of their results, and make a final prediction.