Battleground Poll - November 4, 2012
Likely Voter, 1000 sample size, Tied 48-48, 3% undecided.
This is a place holder for a later update once I can find the internals. I am currently only able to work off the article at Politico, which has picked numbers out of the poll to report, without linking to the full data.
Despite the discussion in the article that "Obama has gotten a boost from Hurricane Sandy", please remember that this poll was Obama +1 last time it was run. Obama has lost a point of support in the last week.
They also report that Independents now favor Obama by 1 point, but note that the change is because voters that previously identified as Independent are now reporting as lean Republican. I've avoided playing with their sample numbers in the past to correct their "lean toward a party" sub-sample, but it looks like I will have to finally, just to get a consistent sample for my models.
Once I can get the internals, I will post the model results.