Final NBC/WSJ Poll - November 4, 2012
Likely Voter, 1475 sample size, Obama leads 47.5025-47.4975, 3% undecided.
If you haven't noticed my irritation with RCP and poll reporting, the lead numbers above should give you a clue. The top line numbers are reported as "Obama +1" then you read into the article and find out that
Mr. Obama led his rival by a whisker, 48% to 47%—a difference of seven voters among a pool of 1,475 surveyed.1% out of a pool of 1475 is 147 voters. 7 out of a pool of 1475 is 0.005%. Honest reporting of this poll would declare it tied.
As I did with the Battleground poll, I am changing their method of sample determination. They use a metric of "leaning" Independents, which obviates the concept of partisan turnout. The last time I looked at this poll the D/R/I was 44/38/18 or D+6. The following is their sample data:
The proper identification of the partisan ID for this poll is 31/26/41 or D+5. Additionally they report that Independents favor Romney by 7, however the "leaning" independents favor Romney by 3. This leads to an overall Independent support of slightly over 2 points (remember that was 7% of a 14% subsample).
When we adjust this result to the different models, we get the following results:
O+0.005 - Current result
O+1.5 - 2008 turnout
R+1.9 - D+3 turnout
R+4.5 - 2010 turnout
R+4.6 - 2004 turnout
R+6.6 - Rasmussen Party ID
This represents about a 1 point shift toward Obama since the last time the poll was run, but Romney retains a comfortable lead in all possible turnout scenarios.
Going through the crosstabs, one omission stands out when looking at specific issues of importance to the electorate:
The voters are not asked who would be better dealing with the economy or jobs. These two issues are 3 times more important to the voters than all other issues, when asked in other polls. The fact that the pollster doesn't even ask is telling.
In summary, this poll does not attempt to predict who will win the race. Leaving the result at 47.5-47.5. However, using the models, it is predicting the following results:
If turnout is D+3 Romney wins 50.5-48.5
If turnout is Even Romney wins 52.5-48
If turnout is R+2.6 Romney wins 54-47.5