tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post961504843704662347..comments2023-08-18T07:22:35.961-04:00Comments on Dave in Fla's Poll Analysis: Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-10773511024400061102012-11-05T17:44:01.957-05:002012-11-05T17:44:01.957-05:00I think it does, and it also means that the red sh...I think it does, and it also means that the red shift is still happening<br /><br />look what's happened since Obama got elected<br /><br />Chris Christie<br />Bob McDonnell<br />Scott Brown<br />Weiner's seat<br />2010 Midterms<br />Scott Walker recall<br /><br />This means it's still happeningroyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02984525836092409588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-35680957021940014672012-11-05T17:01:07.113-05:002012-11-05T17:01:07.113-05:00I think that line of logic confuses party identifi...I think that line of logic confuses party identification with party registration. I was under the impression that Rasmussen and Gallup do "party id" surveys rather than just gather party registration data or party id data from primaries.<br /><br />Rasmussen releases numbers on it every month and Gallup weekly or every ten days, something like that. I doubt it's just numbers from actual registration but I could be wrong.Colvinusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-18130259443683625922012-11-05T16:43:56.455-05:002012-11-05T16:43:56.455-05:00That would only make sense if this happens during ...That would only make sense if this happens during that primary, but here the party ID (in Ras) has increased in October, far after the primary was over.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-77344828550169986322012-11-05T15:53:40.194-05:002012-11-05T15:53:40.194-05:00Saw a comment on a website that said that party ID...Saw a comment on a website that said that party ID doesn't mean anything during an election year where only one party had a primary contest. This is because many people switch party ID's to be able to vote in them, often for malicious purposes.<br /><br />What do you make of this?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-84081928093043694402012-11-05T15:12:44.225-05:002012-11-05T15:12:44.225-05:00LOL...I bet it would be less stressful.LOL...I bet it would be less stressful.davidinvirginiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15529141076962065855noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-26237627466464716252012-11-05T15:09:29.593-05:002012-11-05T15:09:29.593-05:00I was considering taking up stalking ;)I was considering taking up stalking ;)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-70843581259408585232012-11-05T15:02:05.647-05:002012-11-05T15:02:05.647-05:00the job approval numbers are inflated by Sandy. P...the job approval numbers are inflated by Sandy. People are being polite to their president.royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02984525836092409588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-91534901857741760552012-11-05T14:59:03.906-05:002012-11-05T14:59:03.906-05:00This is where I'm at right now in my thinking....This is where I'm at right now in my thinking. Either Romney wins this - by some amount beyond the "margin of fraud" - or else the country that I'm working and hoping to save by electing Romney no longer really exists except in my mind. I don't see how else all the evidence *except* for the polls can be wrong and the polls right, unless that last part is true. If someone like Obama with his record can't be voted out of office, then we're already living in just another debt-ridden Eurozone nation; all that's left is to go through the rest of stages of grief. I don't think we're that far gone yet. I fervently hope that we're not that far gone yet, but we'll only find out for sure sometime late tomorrow or early Wednesday. It's for sure these pieces of propaganda masquerading as polls aren't going to tell us before then. Just got to go vote, keep our fingers crossed, and pray hard if you go in for that sort of thing.davidinvirginiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15529141076962065855noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-40433146759707000192012-11-05T14:57:34.118-05:002012-11-05T14:57:34.118-05:00Dave,
After this election you need to find a new h...Dave,<br />After this election you need to find a new hobby. ;)mpfshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05507061055270883978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-5246364221485605652012-11-05T14:49:04.524-05:002012-11-05T14:49:04.524-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01373921544321924125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-57851928052570527672012-11-05T14:45:22.190-05:002012-11-05T14:45:22.190-05:00I don't think the electorate is going to have ...I don't think the electorate is going to have an R+6 advantage, you would see something like a 45 state landslide if you took that number and also added independents backing Romney by double digits.<br /><br />But I don't think anyone can say with a straight face that Democrats are going to be able to do much better than pull about even with Republicans in turnout, in which case, almost all the polls are wrong by a huge margin. If CNN's "numbers" are correct, but you adjust for an even turnout, it's a Romney Rout.<br /><br />My bet is something like R+1. I just hope it's enough to drag some of our "less than optimal" Senate candidates across the finish line.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01373921544321924125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-52214608477938418142012-11-05T14:40:58.744-05:002012-11-05T14:40:58.744-05:00I am in need of Rove right now. I find reading hi...I am in need of Rove right now. I find reading his face as he gets out his white board tells me a lot about how he's feeling about OH.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-54709360280063581612012-11-05T14:39:20.396-05:002012-11-05T14:39:20.396-05:00From Rasmussen's VA poll (via Hot Air):
"...From Rasmussen's VA poll (via Hot Air):<br /><br />"Mitt Romney still earns 50% support in Virginia just before Election Day.<br /> <br />"The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters shows Romney with 50% of the vote to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided.<br /> <br />"This is unchanged from two weeks ago and the week before that when it was Romney 50%, Obama 47%.<br /> <br />"This one’s tight enough to look at the internals, which are somewhat surprising given the closeness of the toplines. Obama actually loses the overall gender gap by three points (-7 among men, +4 among women), but he’s also losing independents in Virginia by 21 points, 58/37. In 2008, Obama had a +11 in the gender gap and won independents by one point, 49/48. The D/R/I in this sample is D+2 at 38/36/25; in 2008 it was 39/33/27 but in 2009′s gubernatorial election it was 33/37/30.<br /> <br />"Romney wins the economic argument by six points, 51/45 over Obama. There’s a significant gender gap on this question as well, but it also favors Romney (+10 among men, +1 among women). Romney has a 25-point lead among independents on this question, 58/33. On the other hand, Obama does have a positive job-approval rating at 51/49, which is probably why the toplines look as close as they do. I’d guess, though, that Virginia’s going to break significantly for Romney."<br />____________________________________________________________________<br /><br />This is what I don't get: in spite of the internals, "Obama does have positive job approval rating at 51/49."<br /><br />So, does this essentially mean that a voter giving him a positive approval is thinking, "Well, he's okay, but I think the other guy can do better"?<br /><br />I mean, if you're going on record to say you are voting for the other guy I(Romney's at 50%, 2% over Barry, then you'd think those 50% would give Barry a negative job rating.) <br /><br />Maybe it's just the margin of error stuff, but I'm really confused. Why would you vote for the other guy if you think this guy is doing a positive job? That's what's scary. Mabye the word is just too loaded, with too many meanings, and all that matters to certain voters is single issues rather than "overall" ratings?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-58039206405702227782012-11-05T14:23:42.538-05:002012-11-05T14:23:42.538-05:00Well, that was Dave's explanation. Mine is sl...Well, that was Dave's explanation. Mine is slightly different -- I think people are more inclined to answer pollsters once they've voted, esp. if they've voted the "right" (social pressure) way. Remember, the response rate on these things is *terrible*. I hang up on every poll myself.someonenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-28145449420475791732012-11-05T14:18:10.977-05:002012-11-05T14:18:10.977-05:00Indeed.
While the headline results are similar, p...Indeed.<br /><br />While the headline results are similar, polls vary wildly on independents, early voters, how early voters are voting, etc... to the point where you can't take any of them seriously.<br /><br />It's going to come down to turnout. D+3 or better, and I think Romney's got this.Leelee Phoenixhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03906490885434493034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-38441081138918011372012-11-05T14:17:18.735-05:002012-11-05T14:17:18.735-05:00If they "are lying to pass the voter screen&q...If they "are lying to pass the voter screen" in places like Ohio, it's because Obama has a ground game that's been in place forever to train them to do that to scew the polls. Why else would a regular, non-activist Dem lie to do that unless the party had trained them to?<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-89661224355364258582012-11-05T14:13:02.911-05:002012-11-05T14:13:02.911-05:00LOL - Gallup apparently includes Thursday (Chris C...LOL - Gallup apparently includes Thursday (Chris Christie fellatio day).<br /><br />O is toast.someonenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-80737144056706944732012-11-05T13:53:00.388-05:002012-11-05T13:53:00.388-05:00There doesn't seem to be much of a reason to b...There doesn't seem to be much of a reason to believe any of the polls at this point.davidinvirginiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15529141076962065855noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-91138757358962171802012-11-05T13:52:05.236-05:002012-11-05T13:52:05.236-05:00Dave already did. Dems are lying to pass the vote...Dave already did. Dems are lying to pass the voter screen.someonenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-36985649662619663362012-11-05T13:50:58.525-05:002012-11-05T13:50:58.525-05:00Look, the whole reason why we look at party ID in ...Look, the whole reason why we look at party ID in the first place is that it's more stable. A switch isn't just "this policy sucks", it's closer to opening your eyes and realizing how crappy (or, from I->partisan, acceptable) one side was all along.<br /><br />Once you've had an experience like that, you aren't suddenly going to swap back a few weeks later.someonenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-13750193673325929312012-11-05T13:49:05.509-05:002012-11-05T13:49:05.509-05:00If the job approval rating of 51-48 is accurate, t...If the job approval rating of 51-48 is accurate, that's not good.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-34411567731541134752012-11-05T13:44:29.102-05:002012-11-05T13:44:29.102-05:00Are you sure. I read on HotAir it was a weekend o...Are you sure. I read on HotAir it was a weekend only sample. I guess we have to wait for Dave to look at the internals.gaylenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-8979366136556133652012-11-05T13:43:29.476-05:002012-11-05T13:43:29.476-05:00Yeah, that's true. So, is this nothing more t...Yeah, that's true. So, is this nothing more than storm related, media spinning for Barry that is working, and the usual return to party at the end of a campaign?gaylenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-5155871572198739862012-11-05T13:41:54.945-05:002012-11-05T13:41:54.945-05:00Can you explain the discrepancy between Ras' e...Can you explain the discrepancy between Ras' early voting numbers and the EV numbers that are reported from the registrar of voters in Ohio? <br />From Hot Air:<br /><br />" The bad news for Romney? According to Rasmussen’s poll, Obama has a 23-point lead among those who have already voted. Those numbers don’t match up to the early-voting numbers shown by Ohio’s official reports, however, where Republicans have gained over 260,000 in the gap over 2008. Regardless, Election Day voters are much more Republican; 71% of Republicans will go to the booth tomorrow, while slightly over half of all Democrats have already voted. Among independents, 40% have voted early.<br /> <br />"In Rasmussen’s poll, that may also be bad news for Romney, depending on which 60% of independents remain. He trails among unaffiliated voters in this poll by eight, 50/42, although 17% say they could still change their minds. However, the gender gap has been completely neutralized, with 52/45 splits among men and women breaking in opposite directions. Obama has a favorable job approval rating, 51/48, in an R+2 sample (37/39/24)."<br /><br />That last line really makes me wonder about any of these polls. HOw the hell can Obama have a fav job poll rating with an R+2 when almost all year he had less than fav from national polls?<br />gaylenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-6971352056951175962012-11-05T13:41:37.674-05:002012-11-05T13:41:37.674-05:00Gallup is based on the sandy hits days. Left out t...Gallup is based on the sandy hits days. Left out the aftermath days. No worries. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com