November 3, 2012 Analysis - Final Weekend
R+0.8 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+5 - Gallup
O+1.3 - IBD/Tipp
R+1 - ABC/WaPo
O+1 - Battleground
Even - Pew
R+1 - NPR
O+1 - CBS/NYT
Even - Fox
O+5 - National Journal
O+0.05% - Current RCP Average
O+0.76% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.02% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.26% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.30% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.04% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
Yesterday we had a 1.2% drop in Rasmussen that lead to a collective freak out by all the nervous poll junkies, because it was reported as a tie. Later in the day, ABC/WaPo posted a gain for Romney. The most important part of the ABC/WaPo poll was Independent preference moving back to +8 and half of the 2% undecideds making up their mind and committing to Romney.
The "second look at Obama" is now over, and we won't seeing any more movement toward him in the polls. There are four reasons for this:
- The bump he was getting from Sandy is now over, and it is becoming a liability as he must campaign while everyone is seeing people homeless and in gas lines. A lot of people are now asking why FEMA can't get gasoline into New Jersey and shelters into Staten Island. The excuse that it isn't FEMA's job isn't going to work after Obama's bold statements during his photo ops. Bloomberg did Obama no favors with the NYC Marathon stupidity.
- Benghazi is now back into the news as the CIA releases timelines that raise more questions than they answer. Additionally, having two GOP Senators succeed in getting access to the prime suspect in 2 days, while the Government couldn't for 7 weeks makes Obama look ineffectual.
- Minds have now been made up. The final weekend is about turning out your base and organization. There are no opportunities left to change voter minds.
- The difference in energy levels and enthusiasm between the two campaigns is palpable. Obama was barely able to draw 2,800 in Ohio in one of his strongholds yesterday. Romney drew 40,000 outdoors in the cold in Ohio. On Saturday, Ryan will be in Minnesota. On Sunday Romney will have a huge crowd in Bucks County, PA. The visual contrast between the campaigns is impossible to ignore.
D+3: The least likely scenario is that Democrats turnout at 3% higher than Republicans. This is the "split the difference" scenario that pundits have been using all year. Take the Obama enthusiasm from 2008 and the GOP enthusiasm from 2010 and assume a turnout between them. This is now very unlikely to occur. We have specific evidence that the GOP 2012 enthusiasm is at or above 2010 levels. Obama's early voting numbers are crashing and he can't fill a venue, signs that Democrat enthusiasm isn't there. Finally Independents are supporting Romney by the same rate they supported the GOP in 2010. However, even with this scenario, Romney leads by 2 points and would get a 50-48 win. The only way that Obama could win is through massive voter fraud. This would require the production of 2,600,000 fraudulent votes and would very likely be detected. We would have a constitutional crisis. In this model, Romney wins close races in Ohio, Colorado, and Florida, winning 275 electoral votes.
Even: I view this turnout model to be the most likely. Obama has a small lead in early voting that is overwhelmed by GOP turnout on Tuesday. Obama is still able to get his core supporters to the polls, but it isn't enough to compensate for a very fired up GOP base and the Independents. One thing to keep in mind is that the Rasmussen and Gallup party preference polls are real. They really do show, at this point in time, that the Republicans hold a 1 to 3 point advantage in party identification. In this model, both parties get their bases to the polls, and the GOP misses just slightly their high water mark. In this scenario, Romney leads by over 4 points, and would win 51-47. He takes OH, CO, FL, IA, NH, WI, and PA, winning 315 electoral votes.
R+3: After watching the Romney rally in Ohio, I am seeing this result as much more possible. If Romney's energy continues to build, and Obama continues to make gaffes like "revenge voting", then we see massive turnout on Tuesday. The GOP gets all of the self identified Republicans, and the reports that Obama has been cannibalizing his election day voters turns out to be true. In this scenario, Romney wins by over 6, with a 52-46 final tally or better. This would be a similar result to the 1988 election. Romney would win OH, CO, FL, IA, NH, WI, PA, NV, OR, and ME-2 for 329 electoral votes. He would also have a good shot at winning MN and MI.
Romney is going to win.