Senate Update - Gut FeelingsI really don't have much new information, but my feelings about the overall state of turnout results in some movement in these percentages.
Here is my opinion on all 16 of the current Senate races I am following.
- Nebraska 100% - With GOP enthusiasm where I think it is, Kerrey has no chance of winning this race. He was close in one poll, but that poll assumed Democrat enthusiasm that isn't there.
- Indiana 50% - I still think Mourdock will win this, but there was a new poll that showed Donnely up 11. I don't buy that poll, but it is enough to make me cautious. So no change in this one.
- Nevada 100% - Heller remains well ahead, even with Obama leading in the polls there. This race is still over.
- Wisconsin 90% - Romney is looking very strong in this state, and is confident of winning it. That means Thompson will win too. I'm raising these odds to 90%.
- Montana 60% - No change here.
- Massachusetts 60% - A new poll came out with Brown up 2. I'm getting a lot more confident on this race, moving it up to 60% for now.
- Virginia 80% - Romney is winning this state, no question about it. Allen will win too. I'm moving this up to 80%.
- Florida 20% - I'm dropping this one to 20%. Romney is running very strong, but Mack has run about the worst campaign I've ever seen. He has no ads up. The only way he wins is with a huge GOP turnout.
- Ohio 75% - After looking deeply into Ohio yesterday, I think Mandel will win this race. The polls are just not telling the true story, and Brown needs the early votes just like Obama does. Those votes aren't there.
- New Mexico 10% - No change, I think Wilson will lose.
- North Dakota 90% - Moving this back up to 90%. With GOP turnout, Berg will win this.
- Missouri 60% - Similar to what is going on elsewhere, I think Akin will win this. Romney holds a commanding lead in the polls, McCaskill is really disliked in the state, and the evangelicals are going to turn out.
- Michigan 10% - No polling, but I see no reason to believe Hoekstra can win.
- Maine 10% - The Independent will win this race. He could decide to caucus with the GOP, especially if it means being in the majority.
- Pennsylvania 60% - New polling shows Romney and Smith ahead. I think both will win this state given last weekend enthusiasm. Romney going to Bucks County is a big deal.
- Connecticut 20% - Dropping the odds to 20% here. I'm seeing no evidence that McMahon is going to close the deal. And she could end up with Dems and Independents voting against her to keep the Senate out of GOP hands.
Odds of at least a tie in Senate = 95.9%
Odds of winning the Senate = 89.1%