November 2, 2012 Analysis
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+5 - Gallup
O+1.3 - IBD/Tipp
O+0.07 - ABC/WaPo
O+1 - Battleground
Even - Pew
R+1 - NPR
O+1 - CBS/NYT
Even - Fox
O+5 - National Journal
O+0.04% - Current RCP Average
O+0.61% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.18% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.42% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.47% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.20% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
Two things happened yesterday in the RCP average. First the Rasmussen didn't change even though all of the weekend polling dropped off. The last two days of polling matched the Sat/Sun numbers, which generally means a shift toward Obama. However, keep in mind that Romney is still leading by 2 in a D+3 poll. This is a good lead. It is also possible that the hurricane is disrupting their polling operations since they are located in New Jersey. Additionally, Rasmussen has switched to 1000 samples every day, from their typical 500 samples. I don't know how it could be affecting the results, but I wanted to put it out there.
The ABC/WaPo tracker also shifted very very slightly toward Obama. I am listing the actual lead above, instead of the +1 that RCP is listing. The sample moved to D+4 from D+5, so it is a legitimate shift in the poll. This is mostly due to Independents moving from favoring Romney by 6 to 3. One more point about this poll is that 20% of the respondents say they have already voted, while 19% say they plan to. I find it difficult to believe that 25 million people will vote over the weekend, especially since many large states, like Pennsylvania, do not have in person voting.
So after discussing all the movement toward Obama, let's keep in mind the real state of the race. Even with the terrible National Journal poll in the averages, Romney is still leading by over 2 points with a D+3 turnout. And with the 2010 turnout that I personally expect, Romney will win by over 4 points. If we drop that National Journal poll out of the averages, Romney leads in these two models by 2.4% and 4.6% respectively.
This is a bit like in 2008 when McCain had a minor surge in the last week, but it wasn't enough to overcome Obama's lead.