Not at all what I expected
So obviously, my predictions were all wrong yesterday, mostly because no one saw the electorate really being D+6. I still can't get my head around the fact that Romney received less votes than McCain, after being spotted 2.5 million Independent votes.
This was a turnout election that wasn't. The lack of turnout also sank every Senate candidate, with the exception of Fischer and Heller. At least those were the ones I said were at 100%, saving a tiny little bit of face.
One tiny nugget though.
I plugged the actual partisan split of the election in my model, and it would have predicted Obama 49.22 to Romney 47.68. While it isn't the 50-48 that CNN has up it's web site, it is better than the 48.8 - 48.1 that RCP was projecting, and a lot better than the 2 point Romney win Rasmussen was predicting.
So in the end, there may be some value to this model. All you need to know is what the turnout will be. If I do this again, I will probably pay more attention to the reported partisan split and use an average of those to provide one of the model results.
Not that I am in much of a mood to be doing this again. I think we have turned a corner in the country, and I am very worried about what that means.
I don't really plan to keep using this blog. I have nothing really to say of much value now that the election is over. So thanks everyone for putting up with me for the last month.