Final CNN/Opinion Research Poll - November 4, 2012
Likely Voter, 693 sample size, Tied 49-49, 0% undecided.
Everyone has been waiting all night for me to look at this one. I figured I should go through the credible polls before this one.
So the race is tied. Right.
Incredibly, this poll is even more over sampled than the one they did on 10/1. I'm amazed they published it at all, it is so ridiculous. The D/R/I of the poll... Oh why don't I just quote directly from the methodology?
Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.You read that right. D+11.
And RCP just puts it right into the average with all the others.
So how can a D+11 poll show an even race? Why isn't it showing Obama ahead by 8 or 9, at least?
I'm glad you asked. Independents favor Romney in this poll by 24 points. Oh, don't take my word for it, it is right there in the crosstabs:
So for laughs, let's put these numbers into the models:
Even - Current result
R+2.8 - 2008 turnout
R+5.7 - D+3 turnout
R+7.9 - 2010 turnout
R+8.0 - 2004 turnout
R+9.6 - Rasmussen Party ID
When I include this poll into the averages, it will push the numbers up about .25% even with 12 polls. I will also being doing a version of the averages where I throw out the obvious outliers. This poll will have to be thrown away, it favors Romney beyond reasonable expectations.
Anyway, this poll is saying that it is too close to call, and the final result will be:
Tied race 49-49
The models instead indicate that this poll is projecting the following:
Using a D+3 model Romney wins 53-47
Using an Even turnout Romney wins 54-46
Using an R+2.6 turnout Romney wins 55-45