Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Final IBD/Tipp Poll - November 6, 2012

Likely Voter, 712 sample size, Obama leads 50.3-48.7, 0% undecided.

IBD/Tipp finally released their final tracking poll.  They are showing an Obama lead of 1.6%, with Obama at 50.3%.  However, be careful with that result.  Previously they have been finding about 6% undecided.  The top line number was reached by taking the remaining undecideds and assigning half to each candidate.  I think this is a poor model to use, since at this point undecideds will not vote for Obama.  They are deciding between Romney or not voting.  In my model I am using an undecided factor of 4% in this poll, which is slightly less than their previous results..  They do not reveal how many they had in their final poll.

The D/R/I of this poll remains the same at 38/31/32 for a D+7 result.  Independents favor Romney by 6 points, which tracks with most other polls.

Putting these results through the models, we get the following:

O+1.6 - Current result
O+0.4 - 2008 turnout
R+2.5 - D+3 turnout
R+4.7 - 2010 turnout
R+4.9 - 2004 turnout
R+7.8 - Rasmussen Party ID

One interesting tidbit in the poll was support for the candidates by religious affiliation:

Romney is leading Protestants by 21 points, and Catholics by 19 points.  Even the Jewish vote is way down for Obama, though the sample size was very small, so take it with a grain of salt.  These levels of support are going to be very relevant tonight.  Remember, these leads are in a D+7 sample.

The IBD/Tipp poll predicts a final result of Obama winning 50.3 - 48.7.

The models show that this poll actually indicates the following possible results:

Using a D+3 model Romney wins 50.74 - 48.26
Using an Even turnout Romney wins 51.87 - 47.13
Using an R+5.8 turnout Romney wins 53.42 - 45.59


  1. So based on your models of these polls, it seems it's likely Romney will win by a 2-5pt margin.

  2. Thanks Dave. Ace found his balls last night, but still waiting on your prediction post. ;)

  3. Dave - Thanks for your work and allowing me to share your space. I'm done looking at polls... it is all prologue now.

    I'm glad today is Election Day... not sure I could take the stress anymore.

    Whoever wins life will go on.

    BTW I voted in my sleepy, rural, mountainous WV town and there was one other person there and when we were done two people (our next door neighbors)were next up.

    Got to love small town rural America.