And I think I'm done with it allI didn't sleep again last night, and it is time for me to move on emotionally.
Having looked at Florida I think I know what happened, and it probably happened nationwide. I do not think it was massive vote fraud. There was definitely fraud in Miami-Dade which turned Florida to Obama. But there is a reason we say "win beyond the margin of fraud". We didn't win by enough. This allowed the votes of a single large Democrat county to manipulate the vote totals enough to swing the election. I suspect this occurred in all the rest of the swing states. For future reference, if a Republican wants to win in Florida, he needs to win by over 500,000.
So what went wrong? Romney turned out enough votes in every county to exceed McCain's numbers. But he didn't exceed by enough. Whether or not this was a failure of the ORCA program, or a failure of the campaign, I can't tell you. I don't think it matters.
We don't have enough votes to win a national election, and I don't think we ever will. The Democrats have their core votes who they have proven able to turnout as needed in an election. Our core votes appear to be barely enough to match them, but not by enough. And not enough to overcome election tricks and fraud to which they have no moral objection, but we do.
I actually believe that the Rasmussen month party ID poll is correct. Republican identification is 4 points higher than Democrat identification. The problem is that they have enough certain voters to produce a D+6 electorate. This is now the second election that it has occurred. Republicans can only get about 33% of the electorate to the polls, the rest of us don't vote.
There is no specific block of voters that sat out. SoCans, FiCons, and Hawks all turned out at expected levels. But they aren't enough.
The problem is the less engaged low information voters. They simply won't vote for Republicans. The culture and the media have made it such that our beliefs and values are mocked and ridiculed, and that matters. These voters are shaping their political opinions by watching The Daily Show. Principled positions that are important to members of our coalition are considered worthy of contempt. Gay marriage and antisemitism are now the cultural norms, leading us to loss of freedom and a more dangerous world.
I fully expect that with this loss the Republican party will now begin to pander to client groups in attempts to woo them into voting for us. This will be ultimately futile. It will shatter the coalition and enable the Democrats to further consolidate their voting blocks with these groups. The media and the culture are our enemy, and we can't win. We have no way of making free market capitalism attractive to the Honey BooBoos of the country. Not to mention principles positions on the sanctity of life.
On the pro-life position, we have lost. Infanticide is now considered a cultural norm, and anyone who believes that the brutal mutilation and murder of an unborn infant in the womb is just a neanderthal who doesn't understand women's health issues. Again the culture has driven us to this point. Young women under 40 will actually vote to keep their right to murder the child of an unplanned pregnancy over being employed.
At the end of the day, we just aren't hip and cool. The Jay-Zs and Kelly Clarksons of the world are determining who the rest of those voters will vote for. It isn't going to be us.
So now I am going to disengage and try to live my life in some level of comfort. I feel an acute sense of betrayal by my fellow citizens. Since there is no place else to go, I will have to try and hunker down into a shell and try to drown out the noise. If the American people prove at some point in the future that they are willing to take up the mantel of the principles they were gifted, then perhaps I will reengage. But I doubt they will.
It is worth remembering that Jeffersonian theory that the citizens own the State, may be the core principle of our founding, but it is not typical in the history of mankind. Statist ownership and control of the citizens is the normal way human governments have been established, either through monarchies, tyrannies, or bureaucracies. It is not surprising that our country will slowly march toward Statism. It is the typical choice, and can be seen in the voting choices in France and the UK.
So if that is the choice we have made, there is nothing I can do to stop it. I have maybe 30 years left in my life, I'm going to try and enjoy them as much as I can. And try to pretend that politics are unimportant.
But Dave, here's what I can't understand. If conservatives are a permanent minority due to demographics, or culture, or whatever, how did we retain control of the House? I tend to believe that the Republican dominance of governorships is likely due to the incompetence of democratic-run states, and Dem dominance of the Senate is that our candidates have been so poor. But who are these people in the 50th percentile who are supposedly voting for a republican for Congress and also for Obama? I suppose there is some sort of explanation, like overwhelming Dem majorities in their districts and more numerous but narrow Repub wins in their districts--I haven't seen aggregate vote totals for the House--but I don't think that is the case. In '08 there was a very broad anti-Bush vote. But are the much discussed Blacks/Latinos voting for Republican congressmen? I doubt it. Leaving everything blank but President? No clue. But I wish someone would explain it to me better.ReplyDelete
Thanks for everything you've done here.
Well I get from your posting sayin there wasnt enough fraud to lose but we lost due to fraud?ReplyDelete
I will simply never believe that 9 million white voters, primarily those in rural areas if you look at OH refused to turn out. You mean the gun toting bible thumping racists in rural areas wouldnt crawl throuhh glass to vote Obama out?
Also you may have noticed that this year exit polling wasnt done in these rural areas skewing the sample to create a higher D+ turnout.
This election was stolen through fraud. My guess is the use of a tabulation hack which would be amazingly simple to implement. I will simply never believe anything else. No election model, not even by the most partisan Democrat estimated that 9 million white would simply not vote.
But you are right on one point. If Romney will not stand up for himself and address this there is nothing we can do. If Romney were a Democrat he would be fighting this like a rabid dog. Republicans just lay down and take it.
I knew as soon as Republicans said "Obama I'd a good man just a bad President" we were in in serious trouble.
"I will simply never believe that 9 million white voters, primarily those in rural areas if you look at OH refused to turn out. You mean the gun toting bible thumping racists in rural areas wouldnt crawl throuhh glass to vote Obama out?"Delete
Yeah, especially when the exit polls (or at least the articles that claim to be explaining the exit polls) say the evangelicals in rural areas DID turn out.
It usually takes a good year for people to pour throught these numbers.
I agree with most of what you said, particularly about the low-information voters being a reserve source for Democrats to tap into. This is why it is absolutely critical for conservatives to puncture the liberal bubble that owns the media, hollywood and education establishments.ReplyDelete
But also consider this: 0bama is uniquely attractive to them. I am not sure that we can just chalk this up to a general "everyone's a Democrat now" theory. The Republicans won big in 2010. They retained the House with few losses this time, even as 0bama was wining. They expanded their governorships. The Senate losses were explained by individual cases, not a Democrat wave. The GOP needs to do some introspective analysis, but it would be foolish to go crazy and generalize too much. I think the evidence is strong that enough people were still just voting for the Cult of 0bama. 10 million fewer, but still enough.
From one Matt to another: I really hope you are right. Thinking about this election and its implicationsis downright depressing.Delete
Oh, and I disagree we've lost on abortion. That's trending pro-life. We just need to send people packing who want to get on stage and parse rape. 0bama took the abortion message to his hardcore base. Romney avoided it, but he could just as easily engaged in the culture war, he just didn't think that would be as effective. Maybe a tactical error, but the pro-life position is not a loser, unless the candidate is an idiot.ReplyDelete
First and foremost, thank you for your work. But...
You say fraud turned the election in Florida to Obama, but then you say that we can't get enough of our voters out to win. If one assumes a degree of fraud in favor of Obama, one must reduce his turnout accordingly and likewise increase our turnout.
If fraud occurred, how widespread was it? And of what nature? Did it merely add Obama votes, or did it change Romney votes to Obama votes? Is it possible that Romney votes weren't counted? I still can't reconcile the EV numbers and reported high turnout on election day in GOP precincts with the outcome.
Despite what looks like an incompetent GOTV machine, despite a vicious media, Romney did turn out more voters than McCain in the most swing districts, even not accounting for fraud. It just wasn't enough to overcome the margin of "error."
Also, I do think as I've said since Tuesday that Romney would have won beyond that margin before Sandy. It's hard to compete against an act of God. I don't believe in this permanent shift in demographics or mentality. Yes, there is a larger segment of the population who wants free stuff and votes for "cool" but I continue to believe that we are a right-of-center electorate and that the majority of people want a moderate leader.
That said, I see two things that need reform and if the GOP doesn't take them on, then we are screwed: the Electoral College is nearly at the mercy of the urban vote. States need to apportion their EVs accordingly. PA started to do this a couple of years ago and stopped. Why? Now is the time with all these Rep governors. This is related to the second area of reform, fraud, because most of it occurs in the cities. If we don't take measures to prevent and challenge fraud, we will continue to lose. Notice that Allen West is the only GOP candidate who asked for a re-count. Why is that?
I suspect you will be back in the fight soon enough when you've had time to re-charge. I believe you'll see that our coalition is still going strong, especially after another year or so of Obamanomics. Thanks again for all your work. I believe your analyses were ultimately more right than wrong.
ALSO, what Bill Mitchell said: EXIT POLLING SLASHED THIS YEAR. So we have no way of knowing who really turned out!ReplyDelete
Allen West moves ahead by 300 votes in recount. He is reporting MAJOR IRREGULARITIES. Canary in coalmine.ReplyDelete
"if a Republican wants to win in Florida, he needs to win by over 500,000."ReplyDelete
So, essentially, if a Republican wants to win in Florida he has to be a Floridian since traditionally FLA is always close in a Presidential contest.
As an American, this sickens me. There is no way I can emotionally accept that urban America is now all the same as Chicago has been since before I was born. And nobody does anything about it.
Thanks for your stellar work.
Bill Mitchell, where are you getting this info about West?ReplyDelete
Glenn Beck just announced it. Have no idea if verifiable. We will find out.ReplyDelete
I'm right there with you, and I'll continue to vote and teach my children my values, but we may have indeed hit a tipping point. I especially feel bad for my children, I would have loved to have raised them in the era I grew up in. Emotionally though, we have to move on.
The thing about socialism is though, you eventually run out of spending other people's money. I don't think politics are permanent, and we are going to see rampant inflation in the coming years if spending is not curtailed. I could see $6 a gallon gas even getting the attention of the Honey BooBoos of the world. Remember, Democrats thought there were done in 2004 after Bush's enormous victory. It ll went south 2 short years later.
I will continue to think abortion is immoral, but I do think that battle in the political sphere is over and dead. Time for the GOP to move on. It is a lost battle, and it without question cost us the Senate and likely the Presidency. If a pro-choice, pro gay marriage Democrat can beat us with an 8% unemployment rate, it's obvious we need to rethink our approach on these issues.
My wife has all sorts of female friends that should be Republicans but honestly can't get past the abortion issue. I'm tired of losing on this issue while we head of a fiscal cliff, especially since any person grounded in reality knows you're never going to successfully ban abortion. At best you might get it to the state level, in which case all 50 states will have some form of legal abortion.
I'd like to see the GOP become a Party that can compete in all parts of the country, not just the South. I'd also like a GOP where we don't have an enormous gender gap with females. I don't believe Amnesty is the answer, if anything it would just exacerbate the problem, the 47% would become the 55%. But we do indeed need to do better with Latinos.
I don't know if we're destined for 50 states of California, but I think it would be a mistake for the GOP to just continue to play the same Reagan playbook and hope for a different outcome. 1980 was a long time ago, and the nation is much different.
Isn't the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results?
"The culture and the media have made it such that our beliefs and values are mocked and ridiculed, and that matters"ReplyDelete
This is the key. I was just thinking this morning before I visited your blog, that even if you ignored the beatification of Barack H. Obama on ABC, NBC, and CBS, if you never even turned on a tv set, you'd still be propagandized by two other sources and probably be quite unaware of their biases: 1) if you are a radio listener (and I don't mean a talk show listener, just a guy or a woman who turns it on in the car for an hour commute in the morning and you only want to hear the traffic report...or you turn it on for 15 minutes on your way to the grocery store) all you hear on the hour or half hour is an Associated Press wire clip, and each and every time any Presidential news, esp. anything on economics or the campaign is/was spun for Obama. When UPI went under, AP became free to become just as blatant as NBC has become; 2) Next, the same is true of your internet: take a look at all Google or Yahoo headlines--all with huge Obama slants (and btw, some Google exec is rumored to be headed to the Obama cabinet.
The Dems have the majority of the media. Their response is always that the conservatives have voices just as powerful on the right, Rush, for one, but that's comparing apples and oranges. The common person who happens to land on a Rush Limbaugh station or a Hannity recognizes immediately that those people are partisans. If they don't like the style or ridicule that Rush puts out in a single sentence, they are more likely to brand the GOP as "like that crazy Limbaught guy" than they are to like him.
ON the other hand, they tune in to a news station and *think* they are hearing the news from objective sources so when the words and paragraphs and data are spun for the dems, the ignorang audience doesn't recognize the bias.
Someone on Ace of Spades said what we need are more Greg Gutfelds. Yes, and we need more Clints, guys from Hollywood who will speak out or better yet, make movies and tv shows that don't glority the sickness that has undermined much of popular culture.
I am very sad that "cool" is now the prerequisite for the Presidency instead of accomplishment. I am also mad at the GOP for allowing itself to be used. No one under 25 should be able to vote. We don't live anymore in a society where an 18 year old is mature as they were in the thirties (when even then they couldn't vote.)
Fox need to get a lot of radio stations in its corporate mix.
So now I am going to disengage and try to live my life in some level of comfort. I feel an acute sense of betrayal by my fellow citizensReplyDelete
I feel the same way, as if I and they are two different species.
"But you are right on one point. If Romney will not stand up for himself and address this there is nothing we can do."ReplyDelete
Bill, much as I am not discounting that this could have happened, you can't expect Romney or anyone on his team to "address this" without some evidence, hard evidence. To stand up and say, "Fraud was visited upon the American people: your very enfranchisement, the thing your own blood has died for over the life of the republic has been ripped from you" would be inflammatory to the max and would look like a bitter, selfish man making charges he couldn't substantiate.
If someone had proof of this, that there was hacking or that the software was programmed to throw every so many votes to Barry, you'd have to give evidence and if you had it, it really would NOT be too late negate the results.
Thanks for all you did. I feel the same way; utterly helpless and hopeless. But let's be clear. This election was not lost on Tuesday. It was lost well over 40 years ago when the Marxists burrowed their way into the public school systems and the universities. They have effectively poisoned several generations of youth into believing that America, American exceptionalism, individual liberty and the free market are not just wrong but evil.
And the products of those schools and universities went on to careers not just in politics, but in journalism, the media, Hollywood, the law and of course teaching. This is the ultimate reason why we have lost. And now, there is nothing we can do to reverse course, even if we elected Ronald Reagans at every level for the next 50 years. And now with 4 more years of Obama and the leftists, the Leviathan will have grown so huge and so all-encompassing (especially because of nationalized health) that it will be impossible to shrink.
The only thing I can say about it is, let the fall happen and happen quickly. My only consolation is that when we run out of food, fuel, medicine, shelter and the means to defend ourselves, I want those who did this and allowed themselves to be deluded into voting for it to live a few seconds more than I do. Because, with my last ounce of strength I will spit in their faces, laugh and revel in their death agony before I go to Heaven. And I'll die a happy man knowing that they will roast in hell for what they have wrought.
Now, it's time to move on, hunker down, try to fight the tyranny that is now latched on to us as best as I can and be as happy as I can. They can take my wealth and even my life. But they cannot take my soul. G-d damn the liberals to Hell. And may G-d bless all of you who know better, and may He grant you peace, health and some measure of comfort as we go on our way.
blogging as "J.J. Sefton"
There are things one can do: when I went to my Save Mart grocery store yesterday, I ran into my next-door neighbor whom I've never seen there before. Turns out she shops at Raley's and they are on strike, something I hadn't known so involved in the election have I been. She said it was over health benefits and that as she once was a member of a union, she wouldn't cross their picket lines. I have to tell you that although I like her, my neighbor is one of the moochers....she's only about 45, yet very overweight, and she is on permanent disability for bad knees, yet she manages once a week to go to a nearby regional park and climb some pretty steep paths in order to engage in her hobby, photography.ReplyDelete
Anyway, all I wanted at the store was a particular night light and my store was out of them so I headed to Raley's and before going in (I had never crossed a picket line), I asked the picketers what their beef was: "Oh, wow, they want us to contribute more to our health benefits' package."
"Ah," I said, "and I'd guess most of you here voted for Obama, since we live in a very blue county in California." Silence. If there were any Romney voters, they didn't have the nerve to tell me otherwise so I had two good reasons to walk through their line for just a little ole night light that I could have bought elsewhere.
I will continue to shop there for the time being as it gave me satisfaction to let them know they cannibalized themselves. Idiots.
Wow---read this: huge techno problemsReplyDelete
Guys we all need to take a deep breath and relax. Our country is not lost forever.ReplyDelete
Why do we constantly forget that for most people, image is everything!!!
Obama, the fictional "made for TV" character NOT THE MAN HIMSELF is the one who beat Hillary and won two presidential elections. Plain and simple. His cool & hip pop culture persona was what attracted millions including low information voters to his side that made the difference. That's what got Bubba Bill so frustrated enough to utter the now famous "biggest fairy tale" phase. He knew Obama had no substance but wouldn't dare attempt to damage Obama's image without ruining his own.
We are not too far away from winning a national election, in fact only 4 years away in my opinion. We just need our own "image".
Marco Rubio is it! Young, hip, good looking, intelligent, well spoken, immigrant, Florida-based, Senator, etc. Couple the "image" with an upbeat populous message of Achieving the American Dream!!
We would be fools to consider anyone else at this time for 2016.
Forget extensive resumes...they are secondary now in today's political arena. Experience is a plus but will not alone win a national election.
IMAGE IS EVERYTHING!!!
IMAGE IS EVERYTHING!!!Delete
Unfortunately, you're right...Obama has taken advantage of the electronic and social networking system to change voting in America.
However, I think your reaction, although absolutely understandable, is the way to totalitarianism, eventually.
Sure, we can grab a candidate who knows nothing of governing, has a telegenic presentative, is young and "hip" and is no more capable of serving us than is this asshole.
I am not suggesting Rubio is an Obama, but as much as I like Rubio (and I do, really...I have followed his rise), I realize that he gives a great speech, appeals to emotions, and, at least for now, seems to embrace conservative values. However, Marco has never been an executive of anything and so what am I saying? I am saying that because he has the kind of "street cred" the GOP is now knee-jerking toward because of the lastest defeat, we need not to make the same mistakes the Dems did just in order to win. So, you win..what do you get?
What I'd like to see happen is for a GOP candidate or two or three or four to actually be honest with people. Hear me out: I, along with just about every other person here, hates what Christie did, but what we need is someone who'll state the blunt truth about the vote, the way Christie did when he ran for governor. We need someone to say the kinds of things he did when he ran. What we don't need, it turns out, is someone with his RINO leanings and his braggadoccio and ego. NO! We also don't need someone who is blustering as he is. NO.
But we do need an honest and up front CALLING OUT of the American people that goes something like this:
"Okay, so I'm not cool and I'm not going to try to be cool. It's that what it's come to in this country, folks? The young watch Kimmel and Stewart and Colbert and the rest of you watch Letterman and Leno and The View and select a POTUS based on how much you LIKE THEM on those shows? IT's that how unserious is the job of POTUS to you? Is that what you want in a President. If so, I am not that man/woman. I don't want to be that man/woman, because when it reaches the point that the majority of voters care about that, we have a country that I can't bring back from the brink. No one can."
I would like to work on this with you if you are going to continue. Agree with where you are heading, something is amiss.ReplyDelete
Please send email to Doug
Btw - I live in New Tampa.ReplyDelete
Dave, I feel just as discouraged as you do. I just don't understand the new America. It's not my Daddy's USA anymore. The moochers won out over common sense. The only consolation I have is that my state, Georgia, went for Romney. In my little part of the world, my county voted close to 71% with 73% going to Romney. It is good to know that I am surrounded by like-minded people, Southerners who have weathered many a storm. We are strong people, and my part of the country will survive. As we can see in NY and NJ, the people who depend on government to come to the rescue, will be disappointed. Down South, we tend to take care of our own. Katrina hit both LA and Mississippi; you'll notice the "chocolate city" of New Orleans didn't fare as well as many small towns in MS. So, Dave, I wish you well, and thank you for the great job you did.ReplyDelete
If Republicans outnumber Democrats and you have a D+6 election then Republicans are more moronic than Democrats. ABR = O.ReplyDelete
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