Monday, November 5, 2012

Final Monmouth Poll - November 5, 2012

Likely Voter, 1417 sample size, Tied 48-48, 2% undecided.

Monmouth just released their final poll, and it matches every other poll, showing a tie.  The pollsters really don't want to make a call this election.  It is very similar to the last poll where they showed a 3 point Romney lead.  The D/R/I is D+4 at 35/31/34 which matches the last time this poll was conducted.  The Independent preference also matches the 16 point Romney lead we saw two weeks ago.

Notice however that Obama is getting more crossover support than Romney, which I find to be a little hard to believe.  The VERY odd thing in this poll though can be seen in the following table:

Of the undecideds that made up their minds, ALL of them went to Obama.  This strains credulity, and is the ONLY reason why this poll shows a tie.  Even a pessimistic, but believable 50/50 split would have resulted in a 49.5-46.5 lead for Romney.

Putting these results through the models, we get the following:

Tied - Current result
O+2.0 - 2008 turnout
R+0.9 - D+3 turnout
R+3.3 - 2010 turnout
R+3.4 - 2004 turnout
R+6.7 - Rasmussen Party ID

Like others, this poll does not make a prediction on who will win the race.  However, it indicates the following possible results:

Using a D+3 model Romney wins 50-49
Using an Even turnout Romney wins 51-48
Using an R+5.8 turnout Romney wins 54-47


  1. So is it nobody wants to make a call or is it indeed a tie and we won't know who is the winner for a while? Seems so strange what's going on.

    1. This election will be called before the polls close on the west coast.

      This the most feckless set of polling I have ever seen in my life.

    2. So basically we've got a bunch of wimps with these pollsters. Nobody wants to make a call so that if one or the other wins (be it Romney or Obama), they won't be called out on the carpet if they're wrong?

      Now I'm starting to sound like Neil Cavuto with a long statement followed by a question mark :O

    3. I think all of these "tied" polls are pollsters simply hedging their bets.

      No one is really going to be able to discredit them if they say the election is tied and Romney wins by 3-4 points. That's right around the margin of error.

      Also, if you're going to be wrong, it's better that EVERYONE is wrong also. They've all sort of decided to be wrong together to shield themselves.

      The poll that gives me the most hope is the CNN one that had to game it at D+11 to get a tie. I've never seen such blatant manipulation to get a result the top brass clearly wanted.

  2. Turtles pulling their heads back inside their shells. Courage! Not.

  3. The thing about all these late polls (even Ras) is that they're showing Romney's lead with indies *increasing*, and now well into double digits.

    Add that to the partisan ID likelihood and you realize that the toplines are comic fiction.

  4. Dave, did you see the final national Gravis? Dunno if RCP covers it.

    1. RCP doesn't, so I haven't been looking at it.