Thursday, November 8, 2012

First odd thing

This is going to take time, so be patient.  I have a lot of data to input into a spreadsheet, and I'm working out how to manipulate the data to find what I want.  But let me give you a tidbit.

So far, I've done a couple counties, working in alphabetical order.  This includes 2 Democrat strong holds (Alachuha and Broward) and a Republican (Brevard, my home county).  I also did Miami-Dade because I was curious regarding them taking so long to close the polls, and reporting late.

So far, what I am finding is that Romney matched the McCain numbers in all the counties, 100% to 103%.  This includes Broward County.

The exception is Miami-Dade.  Romney hit 92% of McCain's number, with a drop of 29,900 votes.  Obama also over performed picking up 39,000 votes over 2008.  This is a 70,000 vote swing, and swings the election as we stand today.

Now Miami-Dade is next door to Broward, but Broward has a larger percentage of Democrats.  So even though Miami has more Republicans than Broward, less of them turned out to vote. 

Meanwhile Obama matched his 2008 numbers in Broward, but dramatically over-performed in Miami-Dade 101% to 108%.  This despite the fact that Broward has a much higher percentage of Democrats, 53% to 44%.  The counties are about the same size and had almost identical participation rates.

I have a lot more counties to enter, so this will take awhile.  But I wanted to give you an idea of what I am seeing so far.


  1. But isnt merely performing at McCains level odd? Take away a +5 Indie and a + crossover vote and performing even with McCain actually represents a significant dropoff.

    Then compute in a 6% enthusiasm advantage and normal 7% electorate growth and we are starting to see Rep turnout on a % of electorate level far below McCain whom no one was excited about.

    Evrn the counties at 100% McCain seem hacked.

    1. I think that was failure of the ORCA program. I have the registration growth, and will look at it.

      But I have to start somewhere.

      I don't have how many of each type voted, just the totals. I have party id for registration. They aren't the same thing.

    2. There seems to be no argument that ORCA couldn't and didn't compete with the Obama-union machine, but boy, I surely don't recall anyone praising the McCain or GOP turn-out apparatus, do you? We're not comparing Romney's turn out machinery to Obama's but rather Romney's to McCain's.

  2. The last 3 elections showed +7, +19 and +7 voter growth.


  3. The only reason more GOP people might have voted last time over this is because of the housing and bank meltdowns that preceded the 08 elections----and more GOP people had money in the market and in housing than dems, I'd guess.

    Still, that doesn't make sense either because those would be people who always vote.

    Maybe a lot of people who voted GOP last time out didn't this time because they had lost their houses and so they said, "Shit on this."

  4. Just thought I'd post this, mostly to fonfirm my personal observation which I made on this blog and others that the night before the election, I went to bed happy after seeing Mitt and Ann at the late night New Hampshire rally. By looking at both, and especially at her, I just knew they had been told they would be the winners. Their glee and happiness was not faked, as is obvious when candidates put on a fake smile. The wife's candidate looked genuinely ecstatic in the first time in a month. Mitt was so energized it looked like he could run a 10k. Content that their pollster told them that all they had to do now was pray no earthquakes, no snow or hail storms, I was supremely confident. Wives don't behave that way unless they have been told news that will be good for their husbands.

    Later that evening as I searched for footage on the net, I saw the opposite in Obama. He was desparate, a tear on his cheek, his voice fraying, his body sagging. Obviously, his pollsters had NOT told him any good news.

    The next day, I saw Ryan in the hangar boarding a place for NH, all smiles, a very relaxed guy talking about the plans they had for the country to a reporter there, not an interview, just conversation.

    Now, this article confirms that what I observed in the RR team was fact: they thought they were about to win.

  5. Last thought as you number crunchers continue--thanks so much for what you are doing, Dave and all---I have a hard time emotionally and intellectually understaning how any organization has such an effective GOTV campaign when the enthusiasm for their candidate was just not there. I understand blacks turning out as long as any major polling was telling them Obama was leading or was tied. I understand Hispanics doing that much, much less so as they really are not tied to "tribe" (speaking anthropoligcally) this time out for Obama, and I can't fathom the same level of support from students.

    There was a time I walked political precincts decades ago. It didn't matter if you were polite, well-organized, etc. If your voters were busy, if their enthusiasm for the candidate was not high, you weren't going to see them turn out. Now, with a great GOTV, I can concede Obama's forces did that in half the battleground states.....but in all of them?????? What did they do? Give those people a magic elixir?

  6. "How to Steal an Election: Early Voting and Software Patches."

  7. Wait people.

    We keep saying ORCA was a huge failure. But we went from -7 with Independents to +5, a 12 point swing. We increased out EV by 14 points in OH alone. The reports from the field were of huge lines everywhere in Republican districts. Romney was giving speeches to standing room only crowds of 30k or more. Our own internal polling did not indicate a potential turnout problem.

    ORCA worked just fine. But for some reason about 13 million Romney votes that should have happened did not.

    We should not be comparing Romney to McCain. Romney had tremendous advantafes McCain did not. Independents alone spotted Romney millions of votes over McCain. Natural electorate growth sotted Romney millions more.

    We cannot ignore the anecdotal evidence from the field.

  8. The ORCA stories are fucking bullshit.

    It's nothing but a process story that's being used by conservative loyalists to obscure what is either deep demographic troubles for the party or something straight-up bizarre as Dave is looking into.

    ORCA is a real-time, networked strike-list. Even if it totally, 100%, failed that has no effect on the propensity of voters to turn-out vis-a-vis the partisan ID polling data. To win, you don't need someone to call you with a reminder to vote if you're part of a broader, fired up base that's showing higher intensity that the opposition.

    It's nothing but a stupid fucking story that is being propagated as it's easy; it's an easy substitution to not have to address the underlying situation.