Thursday, November 1, 2012

Another look at the Economy

I went through all of the current polls in the RCP to find out what the voters think about the economy, and who will do a better job handling it.  I did NOT adjust the results to fit any turnout models.  These are the straight top line results from these polls, with the Democrat skew still included.

How important is the Economy to the voters this year?  Three of the polls give results of how much the respondents care about it.
  • Fox found that 44% rated it as a top issue, the next most important issue was 18%
  • Pew found that the ecomony and jobs combined as the top issue for 50%, with the next most important at 9%
  • Battleground found that 32% rated it as the top issue, while the next most important was 14%
Within the polls themselves, Romney wins on this issue in every poll.  Even without reweighting.
  • Fox - Romney leads 52-43
  • ABC/WaPo - Romney leads 49-47
  • CBS/NYT - Romney leads 51-45
  • Pew - Romney leads 50-42
  • NPR - Romney leads 50-46
  • Battleground - Romney leads 51-46
On average, Romney leads by 5.66% on this issue in every poll.  And these polls average a D+4.

So while we get caught up in stressing about the horse race, please remember that there are fundamental reasons why a sitting President is in so much trouble.  The challenger is viewed as better able to deal with the number 1 issue of the election.  An issue that is 2 to 3 times more important to the electorate than any other issue.

1 comment:

  1. I've always though the "real" approval number for Obama is his handling of the economy, which is usually in the very low 40's.