Monday, November 5, 2012

Final? ABC/WaPo Poll - November 5, 2012

Likely Voter, 2345 sample size, Obama leads 50-47, 1% undecided.

I'm not sure if ABC/WaPo will run this tracking poll one more time, but if they do I may ignore it.  This tracking poll has been one of the silliest polls in the last few days.  It keeps increasing their sample of Democrats and unsurprisingly Obama's support at the same time.  Consider the following:

We've moved from D+3, to D+4, to D+6.  At the same time:

We've moved from Romney +1 to Obama +3.  Independents continue to support Romney by 2 points, as they did yesterday.

Putting these results through the models, we get the following:

O+3 - Current result
O+3.9 - 2008 turnout
O+0.8 - D+3 turnout
R+1.6 - 2010 turnout
R+1.8 - 2004 turnout
R+5.0 - Rasmussen Party ID

At this point this poll does not make a prediction on who will win the race.  However, it indicates the following possible results:

Using a D+3 model Obama wins 50-49
Using an Even turnout Romney wins 50-48.5
Using an R+5.8 turnout Romney wins 52-47


  1. LOL. No manipulation going on, no sir.

    I really suspect the pollsters are going to get away with it by blaming the last polls on Sandy, though.

  2. I saw this prior to running off to a charity board I serve on for disadvantaged youth in my community (we have just broken apart from DOJ Funding)and was perplexed but am glad you showed the internals and saved me some time.


  3. It is truly bizarre.

    How about some good news.

    Here's the latest absentee news from Cuyahoga county.
    R registered voters are making up 18% of the total vs 12% in 2008.

    1. Very nice. Other than the polls, every indication is that Romney will win Ohio rather easily. I think by triple the vote lead that Bush got.

      If we see heavy turnout out in those rural districts, then we are looking at an early night.

    2. Dave, I wonder if this poll thing is in feedback mode. What I mean is Rs keep hearing all the bias toward the polls so more and more Rs are likely to hang up. Then the polls gets more D leaning, more Rs tune out, and so on. Or it could be that people are turning into democrats 1% a night.

    3. Dave - I hope so. The older I get, the earlier I need to get to bed...

  4. Bob Krumm's final prediction in case anyone hasn't seen it: