October 8, 2012 Analysis
Polls included:
Even - Rasmussen Daily Track
O+3 - CNN/ORG
Even - National Journal
O+3 - NBC/WSJ
O+1 - Battleground
O+1.40% - Current RCP Average
O+1.01% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+3.75% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+3.82% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+5.40% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
Another drop in Rasmussen with Independent advantage for Romney dropping to 3%. Saturday and Sunday were better for Obama than Friday. We should see another drop tomorrow and an Obama lead as Friday falls off the average, then a return to Even on Wednesday as Saturday and Sunday drop off.
The new Battleground poll comes back into the average, and it provides good numbers for Romney as well.
Overall, Romney is still showing excellent polling results. Obama still needs close to a 2008 turnout advantage to win the election. Under all reasonable turnout models, Romney still holds a decisive advantage.
Hi Dave,
ReplyDeleteCould you give a refresher on the party splits from 2004 and 2008 based on exit polls?
I'm wondering if we should consider a model this year based on something in between 04 and 08 -- to account for Obama's ground game being better than GW but also recognize diminished enthusiasm from 08.
If I understand your analysis, the current RCP average assumes a better turnout for Obama than 2008?
Thanks.
2004 was D/R/I of 37/37/26
Delete2008 was D/R/I of 39/32/29
The RCP average is generally running with a D+3 or D+4 turnout assumption. Splitting the difference between 2008 and 2010 (or 2004 if you will).
I disagree with this assumption for a couple reasons. It was fine as a going in assumption months ago, but polling and actions on the ground make a D+4 very unlikely. GOP ground turnout efforts are exceeding all previous elections, including 2010. All measures for enthusiasm show large gains for the GOP. Democrat voter registration is down significantly in states where it is measured. GOP absentee ballots are at parity to the Democrat early voting efforts (something Obama killed the GOP with in 2008). Rasmussen's Party ID poll is showing the largest GOP advantage ever.
I believe that the two parties will return to equilibrium, and I hope that we end up with an R+2 result.
The key takeaway from 2008 (that EVERYONE misses) is that Democrats only turned out at 2% points higher than in 2004, and they dropped back to parity in 2010. In 2010 Democrats turnouted out their base in large numbers. The real story of 2008 was the terrible performance of the Republicans, who dropped off their 2004 performance by 5%. They recovered back to 2004 turnout in 2010, and that was with the RNC NOT executing the 72 hour process.
And Even assumption for turnout does account for better Democrat ground game and diminished enthusiasm. Using D+3 assumes either Democrats will over perform 2008 or Republicans will stay home.
Just read this. Thanks for taking the time to respond so thoroughly.
DeleteDave, when does Gallup go to LV?
ReplyDeleteLater than they did in 2008 (which was Oct 6, 2008).
DeleteBeyond that, no freaking clue.
seems odd they don't publish the date for the LV switchover.
DeleteMaybe they are waiting for some number to stabilize.
I swear I saw a PDF of Gallup internals about 3 weeks back, it had breakdowns on everything. Obamas numbers were great with young people but they were only 60% LV as I recall. So my quick estimate said 4 pts diff.
Dave,
ReplyDeleteI know you don't use Gallup polls, but there has been something of a 5 point swing since the debate, they're now tied with registered voters.
Romney should take the lead in Gallup once they switch over to Likely Voters.
I'm hoping the rumors of Obama's fundraising scandal turn out to be true, I could see that being the moment where the bottom drops out and the election starts looking like 1980.
We clearly have the momentum now, and a debate with Paul Ryan wiping the floor with Biden (with an almost guaranteed killer gaffe from the man who's heartbeat away from the Presidency) could seal the deal.
I've been noting Gallup, but again, in all fairness I can't include them in my averages even when I like the results.
DeleteIf they just published their D/R/I...
I'm not worrying about, or counting on a scandal. The stage is set for a Romney victory, he just needs to execute his campaign.