Battleground Poll - October 8, 2012
Update: The article about the poll included information that was not included in the internals. Namely that Independents prefer Romney by 16 points. I was using the same 4 point that had been in the last version of the poll. I also found a small math error in my model that incorrectly shifts most of the polls a couple 100ths of a percent toward Obama. That error is corrected and will not occur in future posts. I'm not going to bother fixing the ones below.Likely Voter, 1000 sample size, Obama leads 49-48, 2% undecided.
This poll is showing gradual movement toward Romney. It was Obama +3, last time it was Obama +2, now it is Obama +1. In all cases, Obama's level of support has not changed. All movement is undecideds deciding to vote for Romney. The partisan ID didn't change much, going from D/R/I of 43/40/17 to 44/40/16. They sampled an additional percentage of Democrats. Independents now favor Romney by 16% in this poll. The turnout models give the following results:
O+1 - Current result
O+1.1 - 2008 turnout
R+3.0 - 2010 turnout
R+3.0 - 2004 turnout
R+4.5 - Rasmussen Party ID
This poll shows significant support for Romney in all turnout models, and makes reelection very dicey for Obama even if turn out matched 2008.
Hi Dave, a few questions...
ReplyDeleteHow many days of polling results are used in the rolling averages? Are they the same across all organizations?
I lurk over at Ace of Spades quite a bit and was wondering if you had done another of those excellent winning the Senate analysis recently.
Thanks,
Tim in Chandler, AZ
Rasmussen uses a 3 day average in his national poll and a 7 day average in his battleground poll. Gallup uses a 7 day average in their national poll.
DeleteYou are right, I need to update the Senate percentages and post something about it.