National Journal Poll - October 2, 2012

Likely Voter, sample not given, Tied 47-47, 6% undecided.

National Journal finally gets to be part of the poll averages.  They still do not release their internals, but they do report the partisan split, the number of undecided, and the preference of Independents.  This poll is very very good for Romney.  It uses a D/R/I split of 36/29/30, which at D+7 they try to justify as being representative of the 2008 turnout.  Independents also support Romney over Obama by 8 points.

The turnout models give the following results:

Even - Current result
R+1.5 - 2008 turnout
R+7.0 - 2010 turnout
R+7.2 - 2004 turnout
R+8.4 - Rasmussen Party ID

Yes, you read that right.  Even under the 2008 turnout model, Romney leads by a point and a half.  And if the Rasmussen Party ID poll turns out to be representative, Romney leads by over 8 points.