October 29, 2012 Analysis

Polls included:

Tracking Polls
R+3 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+4 - Gallup
O+1.3 - IBD/Tipp
R+1 - ABC/WaPo

Others
O+1 - Battleground
Even - NBC/WSJ
R+3 - Monmouth
O+2 - CBS
R+2 - AP/GfK

R+0.97% - Current RCP Average
O+0.23% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.54% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.78% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.81% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.56% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

A lot of shifts in the individual polls that added up to a pretty strong shift in Romney's direction in the models.  First of all, both Rasmussen and Gallup dropped a point as usual with weekend polling.  This is typical for Sundays.  IBD/Tipp showed significant movement in Romney's direction, and also an increase in the undecideds.  Also the ABC/WaPo poll stayed the same, but their sample moved from D+4 to D+6 and Independent support for Romney increased to 20%.

Independents are favoring Romney by an average of 8% across all 9 polls.

The new Battleground poll enters the average, with improved results for Obama.  However, the Zogby poll leaves the average with it's very very good numbers for Obama.  Of the 9 polls, only the CBS poll is very good for Obama, and the Battleground poll is ok for him.  Those two polls alone are depressing Romney's support by about 1.2% in the D+3 model.