October 22, 2012 Ohio Update
I was hoping not to have to do a daily update on Ohio, but the pace of new polling coming out of Ohio is making that impossible.Today CBS/Quinnipiac (I've actually learned to spell that now) released a new Ohio poll showing Obama ahead by 5, 50-45. It continues the tradition in Ohio, now being the 7th poll in a row to over sample Democrats by an unreasonable amount, in this case by 9 points. The D/R/I of their sample is 35/26/38. Amusingly, the Republican's have a 12 point enthusiasm advantage and Independents favor Romney by 7 points. Yet Obama still leads by 5. Anyway, putting this poll into the Ohio model, we get the following:
R+6.79% - Using the 2004 turnout model
O+4.31% - Using the 2008 turnout model
R+3.05% - Using the 2010 turnout model
R+2.27% - Using the 2012 registration model
O+0.36% - Using a D+3 turnout model
For once, Obama does actually lead in the D+3 turnout model, making this poll slightly better for him, than others. However, I question how he gets to a D+3 turnout when he is 12 points under water in enthusiasm.
Here are the results of averaging all of the current polls in the RCP average:
Polls included:
O+3 - Survey USA
O+1 - Rasmussen
Even - Gravis
O+5 -Quinnipiac
O+1 - PPP
O+3 - Fox
O+2.17% - Current RCP Average
R+8.92% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
O+0.51% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+5.72% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.99% - Average using the 2012 registration model
R+2.84% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
This update to the RCP gives Romney about another .25% support across all turnout models, and he retains his lead in all possible turnout scenarios.
Thanks for running the numbers. It is appreciated.
ReplyDeleteYep, thanks once again for your hard work. Keeps things in perspective. No conspiracy here, but why do these polls so over sample Dems?
ReplyDeleteA good point to pass along, can you imagine how many times a day the phone rings if you're an Ohio voter?
ReplyDeleteI think at some point, these voters (wisely) pull the plug and just vote. And I also think we all know Democrats tend to be much more eager about telling people the way they vote then Republicans, they've even proven this with exit polling and how it always skews "left". My theory is that a lot more Republicans in Ohio are tuning out than Democrats, but are still going to be at the polls if they have to walk barefoot across broken glass.
Ohio's demographics have not changed dramatically over the last few years, it's still a Red-leaning state that voted overwhelmingly Republican in 2010 from the top to the bottom of the ticket. We have solid tends over several election cycles of what Ohio's partisan breakdown will likely be.
I could easily see Ohio looking tights and Romney winning it by over 5 points on Election night.