NPR Poll - October 3, 2012

Likely Voter, 800 voter sample, Obama leads 51-43, 3% undecided.

Another day, another poll.  This poll comes from NPR and is one of those D+7 polls.  The D/R/I on this poll is 37/30/33 which is close to the 2008 turnout model.  Independents have a slight 2 point edge toward Romney.  As is often the case in these polls, we get a large right track/wrong track differential with 55% saying we are on the wrong track, and 39% saying we are on the right track.  Of course a fair number of those wrong track folks think that Obama is the solution to all of our problems.  An interesting question that they ask is whether or not people might change their vote.  11% of Romney voters say they could change their vote, while 15% of Obama voters say they could change.

The turnout models give the following results:

O+7 - Current result
O+6.3 - 2008 turnout
O+1.0 - 2010 turnout
O+0.8 - 2004 turnout
R+0.5 - Rasmussen Party ID

Under most of the reasonable turnout models Obama holds a very slight lead in this poll.