NPR Poll - October 30, 2012

Likely Voter,  1000 sample size, Romney leads 48-47, 5% undecided.

A new poll moved into the RCP average.  NPR's poll uses a D/R/I of 37/31/31 or D+6 with Independents favoring Romney by 12 points, 51-39 including leaners.  If you look at strong support among Independents, Romney has even better support with 42% of Independents saying they will definitely vote for Romney and 29% definitely voting for Obama.  Unlike a lot of recent polls, this one gets the early voting sample correct.  They report 15% of the voters have already voted, which matches what Gallup found.  Among those early voters, 14% of the Republicans, 15% of the Independents, and 16% of the Democrats have already voted.  This is very good for the GOP since the Democrat strategy is to dominate early voting to make up for losing on Election Day.

Putting these results through the models, we get the following:

R+1 - Current result
R+2.0 - 2008 turnout
R+4.9 - D+3 turnout
R+7.2 - 2010 turnout
R+7.3 - 2004 turnout
R+9.1 - Rasmussen Party ID

This is a very good poll for Romney, showing him with a healthy lead in all turnout models.  Even a 2008 turnout would not save Obama.