NBC/WSJ Poll - October 2, 2012

Likely Voter, 832 sample size, Obama leads 49-46, 3% undecided.

NBC/Wall Street Journal release a new poll which is decent for Romney.  It's not as outstanding as National Journal, but it is still good.  The D/R/I of the poll is 45/39/16 for a D+6 sample.  As always with this particular poll, the Independent sample is excessively low.  This is because they push Independents harder to identify with a party, instead of leaving at the actual registration. Independents favor Romney by 2 points.

The turnout models give the following results:

O+3 - Current result
O+1.9 - 2008 turnout
R+2.2 - 2010 turnout
R+2.4 - 2004 turnout
R+3.3 - Rasmussen Party ID

Under (what I consider to be) reasonable turnout models, Romney holds a small but significant lead.