Thursday, September 27, 2012

September 26, 2012 Analysis

Polls included:
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
O+6 - Bloomberg
O+1 - AP/GfK
O+3 - Battleground

Note regarding Rasmussen, he released two numbers, one with leaners and one without.  RCP chose to use the "without leaners" in their average, even though other polls they include do include leaners.  I am averaging using the "with leaners" number for consistency.

O+1.63% - Current RCP Average
O+1.21% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+1.75% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+1.83% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+2.56% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

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