Thursday, September 27, 2012

Fox News Poll - September 27, 2012

Tonight Fox released a new poll.  It is getting better in terms of partisan split, but still not quite there.

Top line is a 5 point lead for Obama, 48-43 with 7% undecided.

Let's start with the good things they have done.  The partisan split is D+3, which is on the surface, defensible.  However, it over samples Democrats beyond the 2008 turnout, and undersamples Independents.  It is also continuing to show Independents favor Obama, which is counter to all the other polls out there.  It is closer though, the last time it was by 10 points, this time it is by 4 points. The D/R/I sample is 41/38/21.

So lets plug these numbers into the reweighting model.

Starting with an assumption that undecides will break 50/50 we get the following:
O+5 - Current result
O+7 - 2008 turnout
O+3 - 2010 turnout
O+3 - 2004 turnout
O+1 - Rasmussen Party ID

Now using my default assumption that undecides break 2:1 to the challenger:
O+5 - Current result
O+5 - 2008 turnout
O+1 - 2010 turnout
Even - 2004 turnout
R+1 - Rasmussen Party ID

People are going to use this poll as proof that Romney's campaign is off the rails.  However, when you look at the trend in this poll specifically, it is movement of several points toward Romney.  I will include this poll in the average tomorrow along with the Rasmussen update.

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