November 5, 2012 - The Penultimate Analysis

One more day.

Polls included:

Tracking Polls
Even - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+5 - Gallup
O+1.3 - IBD/Tipp
O+1 - ABC/WaPo

Others
R+1 - Battleground
O+3 - Pew
R+1 - NPR
O+1 - CBS/NYT
Even - Fox
O+5 - National Journal
Even - CNN/ORG
Even - NBC/WSJ

O+0.36% - Current RCP Average
O+0.64% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.27% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.57% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.64% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.39% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

Average Democrat advantage across all polls: D+5.22

The RCP shows a small drift toward Obama on the next to last day, driven my the inclusion of 4 new polls from CNN, Pew, NBC/WSJ, and Battleground, with the average Democrat advantage being driven largely by the D+11 CNN/ORG poll.  I have posted detailed analysis of each of those polls below.  These should all be final polls, and I will not be looking at them again.  Today we should see final polls from most of the other polling firms, and I will provide analysis of those as I am able.

In the tracking polls we continue to have no updates from IBD/Tipp and Gallup.  Drudge teased a Galup results showing Romney up 3 yesterday, but it was removed.  We are expecting them to provide final results today from their final days of polling.  IBD/Tipp I expect to not return, since they were severely affected by Sandy.

Rasmussen continues to show a tie, despite moving to a slightly more Republican baseline (D+2) and Independent preference moving back to a 9 point preference for Romney.  I believe that in the end, Rasmussen will probably be within a point or two, and will not sacrifice his reputation, however he is having some problems with his methodology.  A 9 point lead with Independents in a D+2 poll should be showing a 1 or 2 point Romney lead.  My suspicion is he continues to be plagued by too many Democrats making it past his likely voter screen.  This has been a systemic problem this cycle, which has cropped up especially in the last week while in the middle of the early voting season.  All of the pollsters will need to find a way to correct this problem next cycle if they wish to be accurate.

ABC/WaPo moved out to an Obama +1 lead while maintaining a D+4 sample.  Independent support for Romney increased to 2 points from the Even support they were reporting yesterday.  All in all, ABC/WaPo is looking to be fairly close in its results, once you account for the Democrat over sample.  They are indicating a Romney win of 2.5% if the turnout is Even.  I view this as a relatively conservative result, driven by the low preference for Romney by Independents.  Their over sample also appears to be caused by too many likely voters.  The results of this poll look a lot like a registered voter result.

Since several of the polls are getting very old, and in the case of Tipp may not even be updated, I'm offering an alternative set of results.  In this case I am throwing out the Gallup, Tipp, National Journal, NPR, and CBS/NYT polls because of their age.  I am also throwing out the CNN/ORG poll because it is an obvious outlier that is too good for Romney.  This leaves us with the 6 recent polls, 2 of which are tracking polls.

Polls included:

Tracking Polls
Even - Rasmussen Daily Track
O+1 - ABC/WaPo

Others
R+1 - Battleground
O+3 - Pew
Even - Fox
Even - NBC/WSJ

O+0.50% - Current RCP Average
O+1.60% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+1.30% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+3.60% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+3.66% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+4.17% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

This result is looking much more believable.  With an Even turnout, Romney will win by 3 to 4 points.  When Gallup releases their tracking poll I expect them to confirm this with a Romney lead of 3, as was teased yesterday.