Really Smart Analysis from Josh Jordan (@numbersmuncher)
I'm not going to try to paraphrase what he is saying. It is a similar argument to what I have been saying about Ohio, and is backed up by the Ohio reweights I've been doing.
Just go read it.
I will quote his final point though. I fully agree with it.
We’ll know in a little over a week which polls are right between national and Ohio, but history would suggest that come Election Day we’ll be looking back at the Ohio polls and trying to figure out how they could be so wrong.
Well, I won't be trying to figure out why they were so wrong, I'll be able to tell you.
But being the MSM means never having to say you're sorry.
ReplyDeleteI think from now on, I will primarily assess Presidential elections using two metrics: independent's voter preferences and overall Party ID (ie, polling are you a Democrat or Republican)
These two questions are difficult for pollsters to screw around with by playing games with reweighting (unless they are just committing outright fraud)
The reasons why I think Romney will win is independent's favor him by over double digit margins and both Gallup and Rasmussen have the nation at a historical highs for Republican Party identification. I just don't see how Obama overcomes that.
Election day certainly will be interesting. I'll mainly be watching Fox News coverage but if (or once) the election is called for Romney, going to see the mood on MSDNC is, especially Chris Matthews, lol.
ReplyDeleteYou could probably call the election before the official numbers come in purely by reading the body language of panelists on MSNBC. If they look devastated, it means the early exit polling looks grim for Obama.
DeleteOne thing conservatives need to be ready for, count on an MSM engineered "leak" saying the Exit polling means Obama won to discourage us on Election Day, I remember all to well what happened in 2004, even Bush was told on Election Day he had lost Ohio if you read his biography.
I remember that about 2004. In fact, with the exit polls Sean Hannity was certainly demoralized believing John Kerry won.
DeleteIt will be interesting to see how the MSM handles this before and after. One thing about the exit polls, that I can really pin on the MSM, is that generally conservatives don't participate thus lending to skewed results.
I have a feeling it will happen even more so as I don't think people want to admit to voting against the first black President, lest they be perceived as racist (which is the fall back many Libs take).