tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post8483833213167086307..comments2023-08-18T07:22:35.961-04:00Comments on Dave in Fla's Poll Analysis: Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comBlogger65125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-66426195983582620772012-11-07T13:00:48.027-05:002012-11-07T13:00:48.027-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-50359142229319351492012-11-07T11:43:23.240-05:002012-11-07T11:43:23.240-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11341262883764719422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-61673734326580612912012-11-07T11:33:25.982-05:002012-11-07T11:33:25.982-05:00The bottom line on polls... and I got fooled in 20...The bottom line on polls... and I got fooled in 2008 ("the polls are crap!") and almost all the way in 2012 ("it's a conspiracy!")... but they call lots and lots and lots of people and get lots and lots of responses. A number of the polls ARE crap. But all those calls, on a macro level, speak for themselves. <br /><br />The media runs this country now. They've turned enough of us into ignorant lemmings that they can do just about anything they want.The Mega Independenthttp://megaindependent.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-4244628533945325932012-11-07T11:22:57.804-05:002012-11-07T11:22:57.804-05:00I don't know if that is true or not. Have to ...I don't know if that is true or not. Have to see all the data when it comes in. Right now, it is stunning to me that turnout was so massively down. Remember how Romney voters were more certain to vote in many of these polls? Maybe not. Or maybe the G0P needs to get into the 21st Century in terms of early/absentee voting. Election day voting is a shrinking subset of the pie. As long as our early voting and voting ID measures make it easier and easier to vote outside the traditional process, election day voting will continue to shrink. Republicans cannot keep counting on election day turnout to save them.Mattnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-18981296114874087142012-11-07T11:19:52.380-05:002012-11-07T11:19:52.380-05:00No way. 0bama knew he had the ground game. I was ...No way. 0bama knew he had the ground game. I was on a Project ORCA call on Nov. 5. Neil Newhouse spoke, and he discussed the two national polls showing a 1 point lead, and referenced internal polls for 6 swing states being with MoE (did not mention the specific states). That's it. He didn't say we are tied. He didn't say we're ahead but its close, he didn't say they look good, we just need to make sure we turn our voters out. He said within MoE. I didn't go around posting this to various places, but to me this said that they thought they were slightly behind across the board in swing states. Which turned out to be the case. I don't think anyone knew for certain, but I do not think that Romney was assuming he was going to win, either.Mattnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-86637421008979547052012-11-07T11:11:51.314-05:002012-11-07T11:11:51.314-05:00Judging from the behavior of the campaigns and the...Judging from the behavior of the campaigns and their actions during the last few days of the campaign, I have little doubt that Romney went to bed Monday night thinking he had it in the bag, and Obama thought he was a goner. D+6! Incredible that so many Republicans were willing to stay home and hand the election to Obama. Stirnernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-75745685573474198762012-11-07T11:07:29.050-05:002012-11-07T11:07:29.050-05:00Yeah that is a puzzle. That's why I got so ...Yeah that is a puzzle. That's why I got so excited when I looked at Obamas early voting numbers, they weren't very good, and I figured we'd at least get John McCain's turnout, nope, the Rs stayed home. Head scratcher...royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02984525836092409588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-8652294026384275802012-11-07T10:39:33.522-05:002012-11-07T10:39:33.522-05:00I am still having a hard time believing that Romne...I am still having a hard time believing that Romney had 3M fewer voters turn out for him than McCain did after 4 freakin' years of having Obama in charge. The national demographics did not change that much in just 4 years. It's damned strange. At the very least, a whole bunch of people in both parties lied their asses off about their enthusiasm level for voting.davidinvirginiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15529141076962065855noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-8019970427242421442012-11-07T09:27:53.519-05:002012-11-07T09:27:53.519-05:00Here's the one other thing Dave couldn't h...Here's the one other thing Dave couldn't have accounted for: if Romney turned out McCain's vote in the battleground states, he would have won. They could have switched, or just stayed home, but the next nominee needs to get those numbers at the very least. And yes, if the party doesn't figure out how to craft a more appealing message to Hispanics and some of the Asian-American blocks, we're in trouble.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-4560775035645682342012-11-07T09:21:01.356-05:002012-11-07T09:21:01.356-05:00Unfortunately, it seems the major flaw in his anal...Unfortunately, it seems the major flaw in his analysis was a failure to correctly account for Romney's lead among independents. It's apparent now that many of them were Reps who switched. Oh well, live and learn. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-48206602827883959932012-11-07T08:43:31.807-05:002012-11-07T08:43:31.807-05:00Great, here come all the courageous "I told y...Great, here come all the courageous "I told ya so!" people, who never actually "told you so" before the election. Now that it's over, they "knew it all along" and anyone who didn't is just stupid. Dave, you laid out your analysis for all to see, and you are to be commended for doing so. You (and many of us) were wrong because turnout was way more Democratic than expected. Frankly, your way of reporting the polls based on turnout models was largely validated. It is just that you didn't think 0bama could generate that degree of turnout again. Thanks for your work and interesting analysis. It is a lot more valuable than the mindless lemmings who don't even know why they think something other than somebody told them so and it is what they want to believe.Mattnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-1355731870839746022012-11-07T05:04:43.935-05:002012-11-07T05:04:43.935-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-75137790732349051402012-11-07T03:52:08.465-05:002012-11-07T03:52:08.465-05:00It is not the critic who counts; not the man who p...It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat. <br /><br />--Theodore Rooseveltroyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02984525836092409588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-4843905539098580732012-11-07T01:29:03.871-05:002012-11-07T01:29:03.871-05:00It's not the social issues. Blacks are anti-ab...It's not the social issues. Blacks are anti-abortion. So, too, are Hispanics. Those are groups Republicans lose big in. The bigger issue is that both groups are a bit "tribal" and will simply vote for the party that promises them the most. There's no way to fix that unless you start playing the Democrat's game, which is NOT something I want to see happen.<br /><br />Anyway, I'm totally crushed. I haven't cried in a long time, and I actually felt like crying earlier tonight. I'm just speechless :(Brandonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-28745374536200889432012-11-07T01:24:05.753-05:002012-11-07T01:24:05.753-05:00What's killing the GOP is social issues.
Acros...What's killing the GOP is social issues.<br />Across the board, we got killed despite an economy that's worse than anything we've ever seen.<br /><br />If you took abortion off the table, you'd erase the gender gap and we could address real issues.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01373921544321924125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-12029062562973631602012-11-07T00:45:15.402-05:002012-11-07T00:45:15.402-05:00Let's go back to Reagan's or Eisenhower...Let's go back to Reagan's or Eisenhower's tax rates, those fucking commies.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11341262883764719422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-16306833959771934682012-11-07T00:44:20.989-05:002012-11-07T00:44:20.989-05:00It is totally unfathomable to me that anyone can h...It is totally unfathomable to me that anyone can have any kind of appreciation for "analysis" that is so completely exposed as utter fantasy and make believe.<br /><br />Appreciate the effort, appreciate the team-support. But do call out the product as what it really was - fake and dangerous "science." You people are not entitled to your own facts. Appreciate that more than anything.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11341262883764719422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-82227071170548910282012-11-07T00:24:19.042-05:002012-11-07T00:24:19.042-05:00I too appreciate your work. Unfortunately the take...I too appreciate your work. Unfortunately the takers have finally outnumbered the givers in this country. Why work hard to better yourself when you can just vote for what others have earned. It's a sad day in America for both parties. The dems just haven't realized it yet. They're just happy the cool guy that gives them other people's stuff won.Dawgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-20588086519153255792012-11-06T23:38:20.594-05:002012-11-06T23:38:20.594-05:00Hear, hear. I've appreciated your analysis, D...Hear, hear. I've appreciated your analysis, Dave.Marknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-35024608195678451872012-11-06T23:32:16.012-05:002012-11-06T23:32:16.012-05:00We (conservatives) were by and large starting to s...We (conservatives) were by and large starting to sound like losers the last couple of weeks, with the excuses. I wanted to deny that fact and didn't want to concern troll, because it wasn't helpful, so I didn't. <br /><br />I applaud your effort, Dave. This country is a lot further gone than I ever wanted to admit. The thing about a 9% response rate is if you do it enough times you get a lot more than 9% of the people... and as a macro exercise, the polls reflected reality. Gotta stare at this asshole for another four years. Unreal. The Mega Independenthttp://megaindependent.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-9278683963641486882012-11-06T23:16:58.986-05:002012-11-06T23:16:58.986-05:00AND IT IS OOOOOOOVER! REALITY WINS!AND IT IS OOOOOOOVER! REALITY WINS!Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11341262883764719422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-19430443228511861842012-11-06T22:32:02.535-05:002012-11-06T22:32:02.535-05:00"Re-calibrated" to create an alternate, ..."Re-calibrated" to create an alternate, self-confirming but totally imaginary reality.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11341262883764719422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-46803663421766149292012-11-06T22:28:13.998-05:002012-11-06T22:28:13.998-05:00that's not true, its not fabricated, everythin...that's not true, its not fabricated, everything he did was transparent, he simply took the polls and re-calibrated on different D/R/I scenarios. royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02984525836092409588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-44608652156792155722012-11-06T22:23:20.844-05:002012-11-06T22:23:20.844-05:00Dave, where are you?Dave, where are you?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-80643187255851338872012-11-06T21:57:54.844-05:002012-11-06T21:57:54.844-05:00Dave did in fact expend a lot of effort. I applaud...Dave did in fact expend a lot of effort. I applaud it. But it is clear that effort was in creating an entirely fabricated system of math. And that should not be.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11341262883764719422noreply@blogger.com