tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post7449161720347331974..comments2023-08-18T07:22:35.961-04:00Comments on Dave in Fla's Poll Analysis: Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-58416405329725007412012-11-05T09:06:46.791-05:002012-11-05T09:06:46.791-05:00Seems reasonable, not just for CNN but the others....Seems reasonable, not just for CNN but the others.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-21530439568404359952012-11-05T08:01:52.279-05:002012-11-05T08:01:52.279-05:00First off, thanks for all your efforts the past fe...First off, thanks for all your efforts the past few weeks Dave. I really appreciate it.<br /><br />My opinion of this bizarre CNN poll is that it is their way of saving face. They can now point to a dead heat, and that way they cannot be wrong.<br /><br />I look so forward to tomorrow night!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-46588017041109313232012-11-05T07:31:38.808-05:002012-11-05T07:31:38.808-05:00With the Rasmussen party ID split this poll really...With the Rasmussen party ID split this poll really does look like 1980.Colvinusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-37990290897090770382012-11-05T07:29:52.066-05:002012-11-05T07:29:52.066-05:00They have to get rid of the medieval voting period...They have to get rid of the medieval voting period.Colvinusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-88691974692914417342012-11-05T04:51:58.900-05:002012-11-05T04:51:58.900-05:00Why? Because they know that they'll still get ...Why? Because they know that they'll still get hired in the next election cycle anyway. When have you seen anyone in the mainstream media - outside of Dan Rather - be punished for being a partisan hack? As long as there are no negative consequences, they have no reason to *not* push their partisan agenda. The money spends just the same for a pollster if they're getting paid for producing propaganda as it does if they are being paid for real polling.davidinvirginiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15529141076962065855noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-21725875664568590552012-11-05T02:43:29.989-05:002012-11-05T02:43:29.989-05:00The question I have is why? Beyond partisan bias t...The question I have is why? Beyond partisan bias there comes a point where you should probably be close to reality if that's what people pay for. <br /><br />Based on this analysis it looks like Gallup should be R +3 or 4 if they use the same model they did before the hiatus. <br /><br />Mojo Jojohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14726012733578287912noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-58224587909461116072012-11-05T02:42:23.147-05:002012-11-05T02:42:23.147-05:00The question I have is why? Beyond partisan bias t...The question I have is why? Beyond partisan bias there comes a point where you should probably be close to reality if that's what people pay for. <br /><br />Based on this analysis it looks like Gallup should be R +3 or 4 if they use the same model they did before the hiatus. <br /><br />Mojo Jojohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14726012733578287912noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-13274721694893616302012-11-05T02:16:19.000-05:002012-11-05T02:16:19.000-05:00There is a note on the EV site that explains this....There is a note on the EV site that explains this. And the problem is the early vote count is reported incorrectly. According to the EV web site the % are actually correct. So the diff numbers are ok.royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02984525836092409588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-19071015313638633982012-11-05T02:13:39.963-05:002012-11-05T02:13:39.963-05:00Those are the numbers I pasted in from the EV proj...Those are the numbers I pasted in from the EV project web site, and yes you are right, they've got something wrong. I will look into this.<br /><br />the EV site is here:<br />http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.htmlroyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02984525836092409588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-4353536314549383532012-11-05T01:42:07.884-05:002012-11-05T01:42:07.884-05:00Just watched Dick Morris on Greta tonight and whil...Just watched Dick Morris on Greta tonight and while I think he's a bit overly optimistic on how much Romney will win by, he at least broke down some of these polls and how, when broken down, shows a Romney lead.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-39191356587750314012012-11-05T00:49:31.314-05:002012-11-05T00:49:31.314-05:00Hi Roy! Either I misunderstood what the Dx column ...Hi Roy! Either I misunderstood what the Dx column is describing or I would double check some of the math. <br /><br />Wouldn't <i>Percent of 2008</i> -- which is [2012EV]/[2008V] -- be 31% for Franklin, not 37?<br /><br />D6 is an entered value, as I take it you used the values from GMU, but why not just compute the percentages. Uriah Heepnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-74728829135165524082012-11-04T23:58:15.608-05:002012-11-04T23:58:15.608-05:00Certainly seems like it (with most of these polls)...Certainly seems like it (with most of these polls). I think they believe it's going to be a close race, thus they weight it to get it there.<br /><br />I'm wondering if there's a case of over-polling and people are sick and tired of it (got to think the people in Ohio are), thus leading to odd and incredibly ridiculous numbers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-43335941561420718542012-11-04T23:57:33.517-05:002012-11-04T23:57:33.517-05:00Here's some early voting numbers from Columbus...Here's some early voting numbers from Columbus Area. More good news, the heavy D city of Columbus is getting smoked by the R leaning suburban counties.<br /><br />https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0As9lU8QOUCesdFV2eERWNU9XbVVybzllNHhHeVNkSHcroyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02984525836092409588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-77880743336436817572012-11-04T23:51:36.891-05:002012-11-04T23:51:36.891-05:00D+11, with 1% R for Obama and 5% D for Romney, alo...D+11, with 1% R for Obama and 5% D for Romney, along with the massive I for Romney.<br /><br />These poll results just seem made up and adjusted to whatever makes it close.Leelee Phoenixhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03906490885434493034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-56928287846881930362012-11-04T23:45:15.653-05:002012-11-04T23:45:15.653-05:00Also just noticed the sample size: 693. That seems...Also just noticed the sample size: 693. That seems incredibly low for a poll this late in the game, doesn't it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-21778074861443533992012-11-04T23:42:12.434-05:002012-11-04T23:42:12.434-05:00So hilarious but oh so scary what these pollsters ...So hilarious but oh so scary what these pollsters are doing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-26941513468207986352012-11-04T23:20:56.769-05:002012-11-04T23:20:56.769-05:00Anthropogenic Global Polling.Anthropogenic Global Polling.The Mega Independenthttp://megaindependent.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-38049751282816559632012-11-04T23:13:15.411-05:002012-11-04T23:13:15.411-05:00Even though badly devised the result could be an o...Even though badly devised the result could be an outlier for Romney based on internals. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com