November 1, 2012 Analysis (posted early)

I'm sure with RCP moving into a tie and the National Journal poll being released, people are nervous about what is going on.  I figured I would post early and hopefully allay some fears.

Polls included:

Tracking Polls
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+5 - Gallup
O+1.3 - IBD/Tipp
Even - ABC/WaPo

Others
O+1 - Battleground
Even - Pew
R+1 - NPR
O+1 - CBS/NYT
Even - Fox
O+5 - National Journal

O+0.03% - Current RCP Average
O+0.56% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.23% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.46% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.51% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.24% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

With the bizarre National Journal poll entering the averages, we see the averages again move slightly toward Obama.  Romney has just about given back all of his gains from a week ago, bringing the race back to the steady state we were at for the prior two weeks.

While it would be easy to blame the National Journal poll for bringing down the numbers (and to be clear, in this run of the models, that poll is the sole cause for the drop), over the last 3 days overall averages have dropped.  I was expecting Rasmussen to move back to 50-47 today, as the Saturday sample dropped out, but that did not happen.  Also, ABC/WaPo showed a one point move toward Obama, without changing their sample.  We may well be seeing a slight movement in Obama's direction due to the Hurricane Sandy response.

Having said that, Romney is still far ahead in this race.  Obama needs about a D+5 or D+6 turnout to make this a close race.  There are certainly plenty of polls out there that are predicting that exact result, but all of the early vote results, partisan enthusiasm measurements, and Independent support (which is still averaging 8 points, unchanged over the last 4 days) do not make such a result very likely.

With Gallup and other polls on hiatus due to the storm, we will need to wait to see if other tracking polls confirm this movement toward Obama, or if they remain stable. 

National Journal Poll - October 31, 2012

Likely Voter, 713 sample, Obama leads 50-45, 5% undecided.

I really hate these guys.  They post an article about a poll, provide no internals, then RCP includes them in their average.  I don't feel right leaving this poll out of the average, this late in the election, but they are giving me very little work with.  Consider the following quote from the article (bolding added by me):

In its likely-voter model, the Congressional Connection Poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time) and whites representing 73 percent of voters (compared to 74 percent last time).

Other recent polls, such as the Pew Research Center survey released on Monday showing a tied race, have found a narrower, or nonexistent, Democratic identification advantage for 2012. Romney’s prospects, obviously, will increase the more the partisan gap declines. The biggest message from the survey is that even small changes in the electorate’s composition next week could have huge ramifications in a campaign that is dividing the nation so closely.

Way to hedge your bets there, guys.

With this set of clues, I am going on the assumption that they are still very close to their last D/R/I of 36/29/30.  I am using 37/29/30.  I am also assuming that Independents still favor Romney by 8 points, like they did a month ago.  It's probably higher since the last poll was taken before the first debate.

Which is an important point. This last poll was released on October 2nd, the day before the first debate.  We are supposed to believe that there has been a 5 point move toward Obama since before Denver?  How does that make any sense what so ever?

The turnout models give the following results:

O+5 - Current result
O+3.0 - 2008 turnout
R+0.1 - D+3 turnout
R+2.4 - 2010 turnout
R+2.5 - 2004 turnout
R+4.3 - Rasmussen Party ID

Obviously, this poll shifted strongly toward Obama by about 3 points in all models.  If turnout is D+3 then this poll is showing a tie.  In all other models, Romney leads comfortably.

Fox News Poll - October 31, 2012

Likely Voter, 1128 sample size, Tied 46-46, 6% undecided.

This poll was last run on October 10th.  Despite the headline that "Romney's lead has vanished and it is all tied up", that is not true.  The last time this roll was run it had a D/R/I of 40/39/20, or D+1 with Independents favoring Romney by 16.  This time the D/R/I has moved to D+5, 42/37/18.  However, Independent preference for Romney has dropped to 7 points.

Putting these numbers through the models, we get the following:

Even - Current result
R+1.4 - 2008 turnout
R+5.8 - 2010 turnout
R+5.8 - 2004 turnout
R+7.4 - Rasmussen Party ID

Across EVERY model, Romney's support has increased by 2 points in this poll.  This shows very strong movement toward Romney in the last two weeks.

Senate Update - Panic in the Disco edition

I hate when Fox does those stupid "look at the Senate" pieces during the panel, because they always end up with me dealing with nervous people thinking we are on the verge of losing the Senate.  I actually like Kevin Dujan's term for what Fox is doing, "Fear Porn".

Anyway, not much changed in the Senate polling since last time, but I'll make some pessimistic assumptions just to address everyone's fears.

Here is my opinion on all 16 of the current Senate races I am following.

• Nebraska 85% -  Charles Lane tried to argue that Fisher is dropping back in this race.  Yes there is a new poll showing Fisher only up by 3 at 49-46.  But the same poll says that Kerry wins Independents by 24 points.  Given Romney's lead in Nebraska, this is just not credible.  But I'll drop this to 85% anyway, just to appease the nervous folks.
• Indiana 50% - Today the panic is that Mourdock says his internal polls put him in a tie 44-44, and other polls show Donnelly leading.  I think all this discussion of ticket splitting is crap, myself.  Everyone knows that if you don't elect Republican Senators, then Obamacare remains law forever.  But I'll go ahead and drop this down to 50/50.
• Nevada 100% - Poll released yesterday has Heller up 6.  I still think this race is over.
• Wisconsin 80% - Rasmussen is still showing Thompson with a 1 point lead, and is polling better than Romney.  As hard as Romney is pushing to win this state, I don't see Thompson losing.  Increasing these odds to 80%
• Montana 60% - The polling still hasn't changed.  Last night someone on the Fox panel tried to argue that a 3rd party candidate will stop the GOP.  Not this year.  Tester is an incumbent and stuck at 48%.  Undecideds will break toward Rehberg, and Romney will have coattails.
• Massachusetts 50% - I'm moving this up to 50/50.  The polling still favors Warren, but the final debate was cancelled.  Warren wanted to reschedule, but Brown said no.  Losing campaigns are the ones that want to reschedule a debate.
• Virginia 75% - Latest poll is Quinnipiac with Kaine leading by 4.  In a D+7 poll.  If Virginia turns out D+7, it doesn't matter who controls the Senate, because Obama will be President.
• Florida 25% - The polling continues to be bad for Mack.  He is losing to Nelson by 13 in a D+7 poll.  While Nelson is still under 50%, I'm not seeing the movement needed to overtake him.  I've been watching the Mack ads for months, and he is really a poor candidate.
• Ohio 60% - Pulling this number back a bit.  Mandel is under performing Romney in Ohio.  If Romney wins by the 4-5% I think he is likely to, then Mandel will also win.  If it is 2%, then Mandel probably loses barely.  I do think Mandel's polling is also being affected by the "Lying Democrat" issue.
• New Mexico 10% - I don't think anyone is bother to even poll here any longer.  Pretty sure the Dems will win this race.
• North Dakota 85% - Berg is up 2 points in a recent Mason Dixon poll, but Romney will win by double digits.  I'll pull this one back to 85% just to appease the nervous folks.
• Missouri 50% - Mason Dixon giveth, Mason Dixon taketh away.  Latest poll puts Akin within 2, and McCaskill stuck at 45%.  They REALLY don't like her in Missouri.  I'm moving this up to 50/50.  I don't see how Akin loses this right now.
• Michigan 10% -  No one is even polling this race.
• Maine 10% - The Independent will win this race.  He could decide to caucus with the GOP, especially if it means being in the majority.
• Pennsylvania 40% - Casey's top line number is stuck in the mid to high 40s.  Some polls are showing Smith getting very close.  This would be my upset special.
• Connecticut 25% - Rasmussen showing Murphy back out to a 6 point lead.  This race will depend on how much the people of Connecticut want to save their insurance industry.

So again, this is the pessimistic version of the odds.

Odds of at least a tie in Senate = 90.8%
Odds of winning the Senate = 79.5%

October 31, 2012 Ohio Update

Two new polls come into the RCP average from Survey USA and Quinnipiac.  The Survey USA poll showing Obama leading by 3 is unchanged from last week.  The D/R/I remains 38/32/26 with Independents favoring Romney by 11 now (up from 9 last week).  Quinnipiac shows Obama leading by 5 using a D/R/I of 37/29/30 and Independents favoring Romney by 6.  This poll in particular suffers from the Lying Democrat problem of the other Ohio polls.  It has too many people claiming they have already voted, and that they favor Obama by 2:1.  I discussed how absurd this is yesterday.

Survey USA:
O+3 - Current result
R+7.49% - 2004 turnout model
O+2.12% - 2008 turnout model
R+4.23% - 2010 turnout model
R+3.48% - 2012 registration model
R+1.31% - D+3 turnout model

Quinnipiac:
O+5 - Current result
R+6.76% - 2004 turnout model
O+2.50% - 2008 turnout model
R+3.25% - 2010 turnout model
R+2.50% - 2012 registration model
R+0.07% - D+3 turnout model

The Time, Suffolk, and Cincinnati Enquirer polls were dropped from the average.  Note that two of those polls showed Romney tied with Obama.  I still can't figure out RCP, since the C.E. poll in particular was more recent than the CNN poll that remained in the average.  Looking at the new averages across 8 polls:

Polls included:
O+3 - Survey USA
R+2 - Rasmussen
O+4 - PPP
O+5 -Quinnipiac
O+2 - Purple Strategies
O+4 - CNN/ORG
O+2 - ARG
O+1 - Gravis

O+2.38% - Current RCP Average
R+7.45% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
O+2.16% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+4.19% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+3.46% - Average using the 2012 registration model
R+1.25% - Average using the D+3 turnout model

Again, slight movement toward Obama across all the models, which is unsurprising given the change of 5 polls in the RCP average.  If Democrats are able to get a D+3 turnout in Ohio, they will lose, but it will be close.  Anything under D+3 and Romney will declared the winner in Ohio early.

I've said this before, but let me reiterate.  Either the Ohio polls or the National polls are wrong.  If Obama wins Ohio then he will also win Nationally and we will be all talking about how Gallup and Rasmussen blew their polling this year.  However, if the National polls are correct, then the Ohio polls are wrong and we will be discussing why.

I am confident that the later will be the case.  The reason why will be identified as the over sampling of Democrats claiming to have early voted for Obama, who were lying about it.  The way to correct this is the pollsters can not include an unweighted sample of early voters, they must weight their sample to the actual number of early votes received.  Otherwise, campaigns will continue to game the system, like the Obama campaign is doing this year.

October 31, 2012 Analysis

Polls included:

Tracking Polls
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+5 - Gallup
O+1.3 - IBD/Tipp
R+1 - ABC/WaPo

Others
O+1 - Battleground
Even - Pew
R+1 - NPR
O+1 - CBS/NYT

R+0.71% - Current RCP Average
O+0.42% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.37% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.63% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.67% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.43% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

RCP dropped brought the CBS/NYT poll back into the average.  Rasmussen and Gallup did not change yesterday, while IBD/Tipp suspended polling due to the hurricane.  ABC/WaPo updated their tracking poll, showing a 2 point move toward Romney, but this was accomplished through a sample shift from D+7 to D+5, so the averages in the models did not change due to this particular poll.  The average support from Independents remains Romney +8.

Overall, Romney gave back some of the ground he has gained over the last few days due to the CBS/NYT poll pulling the averages down.  We will see what happens with Rasmussen today as the Saturday sample drops out of his tracking poll.

CBS/NYT Poll - October 30, 2012

Likely Voter, 563 sample size, Obama leads 48-47, 3% undecided.

Let's get the obvious out of the way first.  This is a horrible poll.  A sample size of 563 is bordering on malpractice, and if RCP had any respect they would reject this poll and not include it.  They are claiming to be able to measure the preferences of the Republicans across the country from the responses of 175 people.

Compared to the last time this poll was run, this poll is excellent for Romney.  Previously this poll had Obama leading by 2 with a sample that was dead even with Democrats and Republicans both at 32% and Independents favoring Obama by 6.  While the top line poll results didn't change much, the sample did.  It is now D+5 with a D/R/I of 36/31/33.  Additionally, Independents now favor Romney by 12 points, an 18 point swing in one week.  All of this data points to the previous poll being an outlier, since it did not match any of the other polls at the time.

Putting the results into the reweighting models we get the following:
O+1 - Current result
O+1.8 - 2008 turnout model
R+1.1 - D+3 turnout model
R+3.5 - 2010 turnout model
R+3.5 - 2004 turnout model
R+5.3 - Rasmussen Party ID

This poll is in alignment with the results of the other polls, but trends towards Obama compared to the others.  Bottom line, this is about as good as it gets for Obama.

Some trends over the last few days

Let's take another look at the poll model trend lines over the last few days.  I've shown this graph a couple times so far, and I want to point out the last 6 days.

On October 25th, the models broke from the steady state they have been holding for about two weeks.  This occurred right after the first of the new emails broke that the Administration knew Benghazi was a terror attack within the first 2 hours of the incident.

Since then, we are seeing a slow increase in support for Romney across all of the models.  They have all moved about 0.6 of point in the last 6 days.  During the same period we have seen significant erosion of Obama job approval rating.

Note that the two things that are not tracking this movement are the RCP average itself and Rasmussen's daily track.  In the case of RCP, the new polls moving into the average have offset the Romney gains by increasing their Democrat sample.  Rasmussen has a similar problem, but that is caused by his typical sampling issue over weekends.

What is really going on with early voting?

I noted a problem yesterday with the Rasmussen Ohio poll that I think needs further discussion.  As you recall, this Ohio poll showed that Romney is leading by 2 in Ohio, 50-48.  However, there is a big head scratcher in that poll regarding early voting.  33% of the sample claim to have already voted in Ohio, and of those voting early, they favor Obama by about 2:1. 

This situation is replicated in many of the Ohio polls.  The most recent PPP poll shows early voters at 36% again with a 2:1 preference for Obama.  I have been noting this problem all month, with Ohio polls from ARG and Survey USA also showing very high early vote totals heavily favoring Obama.

But is it true?

Let's quickly do the math.  Ohio has about 7.9 million registered voters right now.  For these polls to be correct then they are reporting the following:

• Rasmussen - 33% - 2,500,000 already voted
• PPP - 36% - 2,800,000 already voted

The Election Project at George Mason University is maintaining a count of the number of early votes actually received by each of the states.   Take a look at their Ohio totals as of 10/26:

So far slightly over 1 million early votes have been received in Ohio, and 161,000 from Cuyahoga county.  Cuyahoga is, of course, the major Democrat bastion and the intended source for most of the Democrat votes during the election.  In 2008 Cuyahoga county had 266,000 early votes, so as of 10/26 the Democrats have only booked 60% of their 2008 total from this county.  Overall, the GOP analysis offered is that Democrats are 8% off their early voting pace, while Republicans are 5% ahead of their 2008 pace.

In any case, in Ohio, the total number of actual early votes is only 12% of the registered voters, or 17% of the 5.7 million actual voters in 2008.  Not 33% or 36%.

The result of this discrepancy in the polls is to drive up the likely voters in the sample, and to over sample Democrats, since the 2:1 preference ratio favors Obama to such a high degree.  Regardless of whether these voters who are lying about early voting are really likely voters, it still represents a significant over sample of Obama support, given the results in the rest of the poll.

Gallup released a survey yesterday that provides a better look at the state of early voting nationwide.  This survey is gathered from their likely voter pool that they are using in their tracking poll that is showing Romney leading 51-46.  This survey fits the results we saw from the Ohio early voting returns.  15% of the respondents have already voted, and 18% plan to vote before election day.

Or do they?  There is a very curious item if you look at those who have voted and those who plan to vote.  Those who have actually voted favor Romney 52-46, closely matching the overall poll results.  Those who plan to vote on election day also favor Romney by almost the same amount, 51-45.  But those who say they will vote early, but who haven't yet voted give equal support 49-49.

To me, this is just a continuation of the lying Democrat phenomena.  They say they have/will voted early for Obama, but they actually haven't/won't.  This behavior is what is driving the Ohio polls to overstate Obama's support.  Support that will not result in actual votes on election day.

Overall, we are seeing the results of an excellent strategy by the GOP.  Their plan all along was to neutralize the Obama early voting advantage, and turnout their base on Election Day.  In 2008, Obama drove up huge early voting totals in many states like Florida and North Carolina, allowing them to take those states, even though McCain received more votes than he did on Election Day (in those states).  Neutralizing this strategy has been the goal of the Romney campaign, and especially the RNC for the last year.  This is why so much effort has been put into voter contact.  Look at one final graph from the Gallup article.

Between already voted and plan to vote (including those lying Democrats) the totals are running even.  Romney is slightly ahead of Obama 34-33.  This neutralizes the Obama ground operation and primary strategy.  On election day, the remaining 2/3rd of the electorate will vote, and they will favor Romney 51-45.

This is how you win the ground game.

October 30, 2012 Analysis

Polls included:

Tracking Polls
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+5 - Gallup
O+1.3 - IBD/Tipp
Even - ABC/WaPo

Others
O+1 - Battleground
Even - Pew
R+1 - NPR

R+0.81% - Current RCP Average
O+0.13% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.63% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.86% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.91% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.65% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

RCP dropped the NBC/WSJ, Monmouth, CBS, and AP/GfK polls over night, and included the Pew and NPR polls.  Despite all of this movement, the overall averages didn't change too much.

Rasmussen dropped to R+2 as he typically does with the weekend polling.  He will start to move back out to R+4 or R+5 as the Sat/Sun samples drop out of his poll.

Gallup increased back to R+5 and is looking to be on track for winning the award for most accurate when everything is done.  I'm pretty surprised by this, and am gaining new respect for their polling.  I just wish I could see their internals.

IBD/Tipp is not polling because of Hurricane Sandy, so no change.

ABC/WaPo is acting weird.  They keep increasing their partisan sample to make it more Democrat.  In the last 3 or 4 days they have moved from D+4 to D+7.  Despite finding Independents preferring Romney by 10 points, they show a tie.

Independents continue to favor Romney by an average of 8% across all 7 polls.

The important thing is that this is the 3rd day in a row that support for Romney has increased across all models, this time 0.1%.  Note that again, my models are all showing movement toward Romney, while the RCP remains flat.  I plan to post about this trend line later today, but there is clear movement in all polls toward Romney in the last 3 days.