tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post4715195721992491180..comments2023-08-18T07:22:35.961-04:00Comments on Dave in Fla's Poll Analysis: Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-57547558351616961102013-06-05T00:20:11.651-04:002013-06-05T00:20:11.651-04:00I wanted to thank you for thіs veгy
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Also would love a Senate update when new nu...Dave,<br /><br />Also would love a Senate update when new numbers come in. I'm honestly more pessimistic than you are, but haven't given up. I agree with your conclusion though regarding Brown, it's always the losing candidate that's desperate for more debates. Still, I've seen some unsettling polls there, I honestly thought Brown had already put her away.<br /><br />Ace is saying the race is "tightening" any truth to that? It looks like to me it's just once again increasing Democrat numbers. The pollsters are simply never going to allow Romney to look like he's put this thing away, they know support for Obama is already so soft that if it looks like a done deal, no one will show up and vote for him.<br /><br />Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01373921544321924125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-9095876915269110982012-10-31T10:38:42.750-04:002012-10-31T10:38:42.750-04:00I was planning to do an update, after watching the...I was planning to do an update, after watching the Fox Panel last night get their Senate discussion completely wrong. The problem is that other than Ohio, we have very little new polling being done in the Senate races. I'm not sure I have enough information to move any numbers right now.<br /><br />The only real new number is in MA, where Warren wants to reschedule the debate, but Brown decided to take a pass. That is pretty good indication that both campaigns view Brown as ahead, despite the polls.<br /><br />I'll look around and see if there is anything that will give new percentages.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-33379268779293105382012-10-31T10:34:42.540-04:002012-10-31T10:34:42.540-04:00I think it is intentional in some cases. They hav...I think it is intentional in some cases. They have a built in set of assumption about the electorate that they believe is true. Either through wishcasting or outright collusion with the Obama campaign. And if you don't think the Obama campaign would stoop to such tactics, I refer you to their decision regarding credit card verification.<br /><br />In other cases, I think they are stuck. You can't change your model halfway through a polling season, and they didn't anticipate this tactic. But it is demonstrable that their EV numbers are wrong. We can go to the County records and get the actual counts. For that matter, the Quinnipiac poll EV numbers for Florida can be shown to be completely backward by pulling the actual early votes by party. Quinnipiac says Obama is leading by some silly amount, but you can go look and see that more Republicans have voted than Democrats.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-79451600930423024362012-10-31T10:16:06.816-04:002012-10-31T10:16:06.816-04:00Maybe you have discussed this before, but what is ...Maybe you have discussed this before, but what is you hypothesis for why ALL the pollsters would be missing this? Is it just that they haven't figured out how to take early voters into account? If so, why don't they try rebalancing? You don't think it is intentional at this point, do you? Right now, pretty much everyone is set to be dead wrong if you are right. There is safety in staying with the pack, but I can't quite see why only conservative analysts would see this, and not any of the pollsters.Mattnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-22916189803649875332012-10-31T09:39:28.378-04:002012-10-31T09:39:28.378-04:00Dave:
Thanks for all you do. Can we get a Senate...Dave:<br /><br />Thanks for all you do. Can we get a Senate update? I'm stressing about that, despite your earlier optimistic projections for us retaking the Senate.<br /><br /><br />"J.J. Sefton"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com