tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post337107725801321875..comments2023-08-18T07:22:35.961-04:00Comments on Dave in Fla's Poll Analysis: Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-467763758000854892012-10-25T09:01:19.611-04:002012-10-25T09:01:19.611-04:00Not sure how you are doing it, but we are coming u...Not sure how you are doing it, but we are coming up close. I'm using the binomial equation to calculate the odds of winning N races out of 16, then adding up all results above the the thresholds of 6 (for 50/50) and 7 (for 51).<br /><br />Prob N = (16!/(N!*(16-N)!))) * (average prob)^N * ((1-avg prob)^(16-N))Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-83646406301219652032012-10-25T04:09:29.967-04:002012-10-25T04:09:29.967-04:00OK, putting ND = 100% into my Excel spreadsheet, n...OK, putting ND = 100% into my Excel spreadsheet, now I get:<br /><br />48: 0.8%<br />49: 4.1%<br />50: 12.0%<br />51: 21.8%<br />52: 25.8%<br />53: 20.3%<br />54: 10.7%<br />55: 3.7%<br />56: 0.8%<br /><br />Expected Value: 51.95<br /><br />50+: 95.1%<br />51+: 83.1%<br /><br />I guess the 50+ number is pretty close, at least.<br /><br />Basically, you've got wins in IN, ND, NE, and NV, which gets you to 47. Then you've got odds of about 3/4 for 4 of them (MT, OH, VA, WI), so you figure to pick up about three there, getting you to 50. Plus, you have 5 where the odds are about 2/5 (CT, FL, MA, MO, and PA), so you figure you'll get about 2 of them, which gets you to 52.<br /><br />Even if your individual odds are somewhat high, it still looks like a Republican Senate is on the way. I thought I had heard that it would be the NEW Senate that votes for VP in the case of an electoral tie, so maybe I'll check on that...<br /><br />-OptimizerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-24075136652971914802012-10-24T21:00:40.878-04:002012-10-24T21:00:40.878-04:00LOL...do you also make lists and then lose the lis...LOL...do you also make lists and then lose the lists? That's my specialty.<br /><br />re: Michigan...it's a shame the GOP couldn't scare up a decent candidate there...I see a link on Drudge now for a new poll out there with Romney/Obama at 47-47.davidinvirginiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15529141076962065855noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-49047252541992401922012-10-24T20:05:44.095-04:002012-10-24T20:05:44.095-04:00Oh for F's sake. I left North Dakota and Main...Oh for F's sake. I left North Dakota and Maine off the list. ND is over, Berg is up by 5, so calling it 100%. As I said, I'm holding 10% for the guy in Maine to decide to caucus with the GOP.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-81299629073372254532012-10-24T19:38:58.996-04:002012-10-24T19:38:58.996-04:00Oh, crap, I see what happened. I left a race off ...Oh, crap, I see what happened. I left a race off that list. I'm holding a 10% chance that the ME Ind winner caucuses with the GOP.<br /><br />I'll double check a bit later that I have my full list posted. Something else missing too, since I only have 14 listed up there.<br /><br />Brain fart.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-75475156188294209292012-10-24T17:24:17.591-04:002012-10-24T17:24:17.591-04:00Great stuff. It doesn't seem very likely to a...Great stuff. It doesn't seem very likely to a lot of people, and you can debate the odds on individual races, but when you add it all up, it seems pretty likely that the Senate will be Republican after this election.<br /><br />That being said, I wish I could get to the bottom of how my math does not match up with yours. Using your old numbers for ME (10%) and ND (70%), plus these new ones, I get a 76.6% chance of 51+, and 91.5% chance of 51+. Here's the "meaty" part of the distribution:<br /><br />49: 6.4%<br />50: 14.9%<br />51: 23.0%<br />52: 24.2%<br />53: 17.4%<br />54: 8.6%<br />55: 2.8%<br /><br />Expected value is 51.65.<br /><br />-OptimizerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-10107404872401349882012-10-24T12:31:57.206-04:002012-10-24T12:31:57.206-04:00Okay, thanks. She's one that I'm really ro...Okay, thanks. She's one that I'm really rooting for hard (and have donated to a couple of times). She's caught almost as much crap from the Dems as West in Florida has, for the obvious reasons.davidinvirginiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15529141076962065855noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-57555943435121631482012-10-24T12:30:21.893-04:002012-10-24T12:30:21.893-04:00Well, I went ahead and zapped it anyway...I don...Well, I went ahead and zapped it anyway...I don't want to attract that rolling furball by accident.davidinvirginiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15529141076962065855noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-5121907633176845052012-10-24T12:29:47.605-04:002012-10-24T12:29:47.605-04:00I just looked at RCP. Nothing new there since 9/2...I just looked at RCP. Nothing new there since 9/26 when Mia was showing a 6 point lead.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-22412088275593741102012-10-24T12:28:06.122-04:002012-10-24T12:28:06.122-04:00I was ok with your first comment, but I didn't...I was ok with your first comment, but I didn't want things to get out of hand. :)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-84245164741993052992012-10-24T12:27:09.914-04:002012-10-24T12:27:09.914-04:00Kristen could parade naked through NYC holding the...Kristen could parade naked through NYC holding the severed head of a goat, and still win that race.<br /><br />I really think that New York is permanently screwed by having more than two parties there.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-72679369579754444762012-10-24T12:25:10.064-04:002012-10-24T12:25:10.064-04:00Dave...is there any place to look for polling in i...Dave...is there any place to look for polling in individual House races? I'm curious as to how Mia Love is doing in Utah.davidinvirginiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15529141076962065855noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-40164735397139502222012-10-24T12:24:51.098-04:002012-10-24T12:24:51.098-04:00This is my feeling. If Kaine was up 5 and at 49% ...This is my feeling. If Kaine was up 5 and at 49% I would be more cautious. But I think Allen is really ahead. The polling in VA is still leaning too far toward the Dems for the turnout that will actually occur.<br /><br />I also think that Obama's Navy comments in the debate are going to end up hurting Kaine.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-32617236815976498692012-10-24T12:23:25.476-04:002012-10-24T12:23:25.476-04:00No worries...I'm over here to avoid that. :-)No worries...I'm over here to avoid that. :-)davidinvirginiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15529141076962065855noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-14926287578204888332012-10-24T12:23:13.482-04:002012-10-24T12:23:13.482-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01373921544321924125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-68789600916903449322012-10-24T12:23:10.429-04:002012-10-24T12:23:10.429-04:00I too am somewhat hopeful regarding results in PA....I too am somewhat hopeful regarding results in PA. (R)s picked up 5 house seats a governor and a senator in 2010. Depending on t/o (as always) that suggests a comfortable majority based on total house representation.<br /><br />NEDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-13370486816156749012012-10-24T12:22:43.035-04:002012-10-24T12:22:43.035-04:00Fair warning - I will not allow my blog to turn in...Fair warning - I will not allow my blog to turn into a "rape comment" discussion. Anyone who feels like waxing eloquent about Mourdock's statement, there is a nice 600+ comment thread over at Ace where you can vent.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-54675607852559224512012-10-24T12:07:58.381-04:002012-10-24T12:07:58.381-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.davidinvirginiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15529141076962065855noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-82953844176373232252012-10-24T12:05:38.442-04:002012-10-24T12:05:38.442-04:00I'm less optimistic about our Senate chances, ...I'm less optimistic about our Senate chances, but I still believe will get to 50 plus Paul Ryan as the tie breaker. <br /><br />I'm pessimistic about Allen and Mandel, but I hope I'm wrong. Allen should have retired and is a bit out of step with the "new" Virginia and Mandel is too young and looks it. Still, if the GOP can garner a huge turnout, it might be enough to muscle them through. Obama has clearly conceded Virginia. I actually think Scott Brown will win narrowly, I just don't see Fauxcahontas as a Senator, and Romney at the top of the ticket helps Brown.<br /><br />I tell you what, I wouldn't be a bit surprised though if we came up short in the Senate because of stupid comments about rape and abortion. I can't believe how dumb that wing of the Party can be sometimes. I certainly know any Republican that doesn't have a rape exception for abortion will not get my vote in the primary from now on.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01373921544321924125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-84812528952814574722012-10-24T11:45:50.977-04:002012-10-24T11:45:50.977-04:00Hey Dave:
What are the odds that Kristen Gillibra...Hey Dave:<br /><br />What are the odds that Kristen Gillibrand will lose in New York? Sheesh, I don't even remember the challenger's name, and I live here!<br /><br />Thanks for the great work.<br /><br />"J.J. Sefton"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-31785117314956695922012-10-24T11:15:45.102-04:002012-10-24T11:15:45.102-04:00From your keyboard to God's ear (screen? :-)),...From your keyboard to God's ear (screen? :-)), Dave. I think Romney will have coat tails, too, but I'm not sure they will be quite as long as you think they will be.<br /><br />re: Virginia...I'm not a big fan of Allen from long before I moved to the state, but I have a hard time seeing Kaine win if, as it looks like now (knock on wood), Romney carries the state. I think a lot of depressed Dems who don't bother showing up for Obama won't be there to vote for Kaine either. Just a hunch, but I think Allen will take it.davidinvirginiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15529141076962065855noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-7282288946880914292012-10-24T10:06:58.693-04:002012-10-24T10:06:58.693-04:00Not optimistic about Allen in VA. We tend to swal...Not optimistic about Allen in VA. We tend to swallow whole any claim by a Democrat to be a non-partisan, reach-across-the-aisle, downright conservative kind of guy. We have two Democrats in the Senate right now on account of that tendency. I won't believe this one until I see it.Mattnoreply@blogger.com