tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post156660740406644616..comments2023-08-18T07:22:35.961-04:00Comments on Dave in Fla's Poll Analysis: Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-48943235584880876062014-05-12T16:04:38.772-04:002014-05-12T16:04:38.772-04:00It's going to be finish of mine day, but befor...It's going to be finish of mine day, but before <br />finish I am reading this great paragraph to increase my know-how.<br /><br /><br /><br />Also visit my webpage - gas safety check (<a href="http://humenesa.besaba.com/?document_srl=26419" rel="nofollow"></a>)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-68338927365679168722013-03-16T21:27:15.224-04:002013-03-16T21:27:15.224-04:00When I originally commented I clicked the "No...When I originally commented I clicked the "Notify me when new comments are added" checkbox and now each time a comment <br />is added I get four emails with the same comment. Is there <br />any way you can remove me from that service?<br /><br />Bless you!<br /><br />Here is my page ... <a href="http://wiki.Timewaveone.info/index.php?title=Average_American_Male_Height" rel="nofollow">waist to height ratio calculator</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-87562748956646960292012-11-10T06:43:54.495-05:002012-11-10T06:43:54.495-05:00Its great to hear, Obama's high percentage for...Its great to hear, Obama's high percentage for the support of Hurricane sandy.<br /> <a href="http://www.samplestatements.com/" rel="nofollow">Statement Examples</a> Gene Bernicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06978163176023727092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-58630294447466079502012-11-06T01:00:59.759-05:002012-11-06T01:00:59.759-05:00I don't know if it's a Sandy bounce. I sti...I don't know if it's a Sandy bounce. I still don't believe that happened.<br /><br />Romney was 22 and 20 ahead in the South in prior Gallup polls, now only 10.<br /><br />Both of those shifts are a good sign. But, prove that Gallup is like the rest of the polls. They're hedging their bets, likely because they have no confidence due to >10% response rates, which some pollsters have even admitted.Leelee Phoenixhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03906490885434493034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-24732091217681112072012-11-06T00:16:39.112-05:002012-11-06T00:16:39.112-05:00Dave, it's been fun buddy!
Get a good night&#...<b>Dave, it's been fun buddy!</b><br /><br />Get a good night's rest, will be a long one <br />tomorrow. I figure we will hear rough NH and ME-cd2 data points relatively 'early' which we can use to start removing entropy and narrow down the potential space of all possible electorates into a reduced subset which culls out many of the outlier polling and helps narrow down the likely PID combinations to look at even closer. <br /><br />Somewhat early, we should be able to pickup on deviations either toward or away from the following two electorate distribution models: [red wave] or [2008++]<br /> <br /><br />I'm in the field mot of the day, but will try to squeeze in time to check up later on.<br /><br /><br /><b>Thanks once again, Dave and other contributors, for everything!</b><br /><br />NB: Typing on Ambien is hardUriah Heepnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-66660559135772720912012-11-05T23:41:06.832-05:002012-11-05T23:41:06.832-05:00Agreed, that's quite decisive if true.
This ...Agreed, that's quite decisive if true. <br /><br />This election is going to teach many about the "map-territory distinction" and how analysis at different levels of abstraction can yield a drastically different picture. <br /><br />Alfred Korzybski will be smirking. Uriah Heepnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-53219763948842867952012-11-05T20:52:03.909-05:002012-11-05T20:52:03.909-05:00That's even more decisive, though -- to get th...That's even more decisive, though -- to get those numbers on this turnout, particularly in the midwest, Romney should be carrying indies by quite a margin.someonenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-70294930733130708912012-11-05T20:29:44.510-05:002012-11-05T20:29:44.510-05:00I worded that poorly and corrected. That table is...I worded that poorly and corrected. That table is regional support among all voters, not just Ind.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-6290123384461810912012-11-05T20:26:18.163-05:002012-11-05T20:26:18.163-05:00What I've learned over the last month is that ...What I've learned over the last month is that pollsters make some really basic and obvious mistakes, but either don't care or purposely do not correct.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-10111554810376382142012-11-05T20:24:40.386-05:002012-11-05T20:24:40.386-05:0018 point lead with non-hispanic whites. I have no...18 point lead with non-hispanic whites. I have no idea if that is good or bad. I tend to consider it irrelevant. Partisan ID is what influences votes, not race.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-82483092547861498872012-11-05T20:21:36.224-05:002012-11-05T20:21:36.224-05:00Probably tomorrow when I do my final predictions.Probably tomorrow when I do my final predictions.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12963425555761631341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-68793272475839810512012-11-05T20:14:20.952-05:002012-11-05T20:14:20.952-05:00What about the Senate races? Update?What about the Senate races? Update?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-88350755293375442232012-11-05T20:12:19.525-05:002012-11-05T20:12:19.525-05:00The odd part is that although this analysis should...The odd part is that although this analysis should also be quite obvious to Gallup as well they don't seem to draw those conclusions and call the race a gossip when clearly there is merely a regional effect from a one time event taking place.<br /><br />They go on to say that Romney's debate bounce seems to have disappeared when clearly it has not except in the NE where Obama.has gotten a rally round the flag bounce from those already likely to support him.<br /><br />Really seems as if Gallup.is actually trying to create a false momentum for Obama here.Bill Mitchellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-78548626320155499922012-11-05T20:07:07.793-05:002012-11-05T20:07:07.793-05:00Yep that was my thinking too. Sandy gave Obama a ...Yep that was my thinking too. Sandy gave Obama a big bounce in areas already voting for him. Unfortunately he can only win NJ once. His performance in the rest of the country where the battlegroind states lie is quite damning.<br /><br />Looks like yet another confirmation of a 3 to 5 point Romney win.Bill Mitchellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-51744359440574316962012-11-05T20:07:01.099-05:002012-11-05T20:07:01.099-05:00Thanks for the update. Did they break this down b...Thanks for the update. Did they break this down by racial categories? Someone elsewhere said Gallup said Romney's white support had dropped quite a bit.<br /><br />It's 5:03 and since I'm listening to the Mark Levine Show, the stupid station that carries it here is an ABC one. They played a bit of Obama's appearance with Springsteen and JayZ, nothing from a Mitt rally, then the announcer said joyously, "It looks as if President Obama has finally pulled out ahead of his rival by 3 points" and then they played about 15 seconds of an interview with some pollster working for Obama who said, "It looks like an Obama win."<br />The media never cease to amaze me--all those commuters all day listening to the news and this is what they hear.gaylenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922495112008511600.post-19686340054660367212012-11-05T19:54:44.054-05:002012-11-05T19:54:44.054-05:00Wow, that breakdown of indies by region is devasta...Wow, that breakdown of indies by region is devastating.<br /><br />So Obama got a huge Sandy bounce... along the storm track, in states he's either already won or already lost.<br /><br />In the rest of the country, Romney continues to win Is handily.<br /><br />And this was a poll of the weekend and the most favorable Sandy day.someonenoreply@blogger.com